How can India navigate the new wave of trade protectionism?

Dec 20, 2025

Dr. Arpita Mukherjee, a trade economist with expertise in international trade at ICRIER, dives deep into India’s export landscape amid challenging U.S. tariffs. She discusses the political incentives behind these tariffs and their impact on key sectors like auto and textiles. Arpita explores strategies for Indian exporters, including leveraging tariff exemptions for electronics and the potential for trade deals. Strategies such as market diversification and reviving a strong WTO role are highlighted as crucial for navigating the complexities of global trade.

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INSIGHT

US Tariffs Didn’t Halt Exports

Despite massive US tariffs (up to 50%), Indian exports to the US rose strongly in 2025, showing market resilience.
Exports grew due to product mix, order timing, and existing demand rather than tariff immunity.

ADVICE

Negotiate And Reduce Vulnerabilities

Negotiate bilateral deals while reducing dependence on problematic imports like Russian oil.
Use diplomacy and trade talks to ease tariff pressures and create negotiating space.

INSIGHT

FTAs Need Deeper Scrutiny

FTAs' effectiveness is unclear because rule-of-origin and usage data are weak.
India often gave less market access than competitors, leaving it disadvantaged in partner markets.

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Data shows that India’s exports increased by over 15 percent in November year-on-year, the country’s fastest growth in three years. India’s total exports (Merchandise and Services combined) for November 2025 is estimated at $ 73.99 billion. This is a growth of 15.52 per cent, compared November 2024. The rise comes at a time when U.S. has imposed steep tariffs on India. U.S. President Trump introduced reciprocal taxes ---the so-called “liberation day” tariffs -- in April. The U.S. slapped an additional 25 percent tariff on India in retaliation for its continued purchases of Russian oil, bringing total tariffs to 50 per cent. Despite all the new tariffs, exports to the US are booming. U.S. is still the largest destination for Indian exports, growing at 22 per cent in November, compared to last year. It reached approximately $7billion. Engineering, electronics, jewellery and gems, and pharmaceuticals are the top performing sectors. China, Spain, United Arab Emirates and Tanzania are the other top destinations. This is pretty much the same in April-November this year. Data shows USA, China, Spain, the UAE and Hong Kong were the top destinations for Indian goods in this period. These numbers are pretty great, but there are some causes for concern too. While exports are estimated at $ 562.13 Billion during April-November 2025, growing by 5.43 per cent, total imports jumped in this period. Total imports during April-November 2025 is estimated at $ 651.13 billion, up 5 per cent. Merchandise trade deficit during April-November 2025 was $ 223.13 billion as compared to $ 203.33 billion during April-November 2024. One way to tackle the ballooning trade deficit is to urgently diversify both products and trading partners. This plays into a larger context. 2025 will be remembered as they year of the return of protectionism. There is an urgent need to diversify both products and trading partners. How should India navigate this new normal?

Guest: Arpita Mukherjee, Professor, at Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)

Host: Nivedita V

Edited by Sharmada Venkatasubramanian

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