Trading insights: Can US exceptionalism keep its shine?
Feb 14, 2025
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Dive into the intriguing dynamics of U.S. equities as they contrast with global markets. Recent underperformance sparks discussions on potential buying opportunities. Delve into economic catalysts like tariffs and the impact of key tech companies. Explore the differing sentiments between retail and hedge fund investors in an ever-evolving market. The episode also sheds light on U.S. exceptionalism, contrasting it with European prospects while discussing strategic sector positioning for future growth.
The recent modest performance of U.S. equities, juxtaposed with stronger gains in European markets, raises questions about U.S. exceptionalism's sustainability.
Despite current underperformance, analysts suggest a buying opportunity in U.S. equities, driven by positive retail investor sentiments and potential economic stability.
Deep dives
Current Positioning of US Equities
US equities have experienced a notable rally, with the S&P 500 seeing increases of over 20% in 2023 and 2024. However, year-to-date performance has been modest, with only a 3% rise, while global markets, particularly in Europe, have seen stronger gains. Current positioning in US equities is described as above average but not extreme, influenced by mixed catalysts including an initial bullish impulse from reduced tariffs and subsequent bearish sentiments linked to the deep sea incident. Retail investor buying has provided significant support, even as hedge funds have become more risk-averse, suggesting a more neutral overall market environment.
Outlook for US Equity Performance
Despite the lukewarm performance in the US market so far, indicators suggest potential for further gains. Expecting a positive trajectory, analysts recommend buying the dip, noting historically strong S&P responses following high retail flows. The optimism hinges on stable economic growth and easing inflation, which could boost investor confidence in equities. A significant shift in sentiment may be required, particularly with reduced tariffs and clarification of news flows around key economic metrics, to drive U.S. equity performance higher.
Sector Insights and European Comparisons
In analyzing sector performance, financials are viewed favorably due to positive ETF flows, suggesting potential for growth from a low base. Notably, U.S. equities have been under pressure compared to European markets, with the SX5E index up 10% year-to-date. While European performance indicators are improving, including inflows into equities, long-term hedge fund positioning remains low relative to historical norms. The ongoing dynamics related to tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical factors such as the Ukraine conflict will be critical in shaping future equity landscapes in both regions.
In this episode, the team delves into the risk and reward dynamics of U.S. equities compared to the rest of the world, following the recent comparative underperformance from the U.S. They discuss recent investor flows and positioning, and whether the recent underperformance in U.S. equities presents a “buy the dip” opportunity. They also touch on the macroeconomic environment, corporate earnings and geopolitical factors, assessing how these elements impact U.S. exceptionalism relative to Europe and the rest of the world. John Schlegel, head of Global Positioning Intelligence, and Ellen Wang, from the U.S. Market Intelligence team, are joined by Eloise Goulder, head of the wider Global Data Assets & Alpha Group.
This episode was recorded on February 11, 2025.
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