Trading Insights: Can US exceptionalism keep its shine?
whatshot 7 snips
Feb 14, 2025
Dive into the intriguing dynamics of U.S. equities as they contrast with global markets. Recent underperformance sparks discussions on potential buying opportunities. Delve into economic catalysts like tariffs and the impact of key tech companies. Explore the differing sentiments between retail and hedge fund investors in an ever-evolving market. The episode also sheds light on U.S. exceptionalism, contrasting it with European prospects while discussing strategic sector positioning for future growth.
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insights INSIGHT
US Equity Positioning
US equity positioning is slightly above average, between the 60th and 70th percentile.
This has been relatively stable due to bullish (inauguration) and bearish (deep-seek news) catalysts offsetting each other.
insights INSIGHT
Potential for US Equity Rally
Despite above-average positioning, there's still room for US equities to rally further, especially if fundamentals remain positive.
Buying the dip is still a viable strategy according to current market analysis.
insights INSIGHT
Positive US Macroeconomic Factors
The U.S. macro data, including a dovish December CPI and strong employment reports, point to a "Goldilocks" economic scenario.
Robust earnings growth, exceeding expectations at 16%, further strengthens the long-term outlook for U.S. equities.
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In this episode, the team delves into the risk and reward dynamics of U.S. equities compared to the rest of the world, following the recent comparative underperformance from the U.S. They discuss recent investor flows and positioning, and whether the recent underperformance in U.S. equities presents a “buy the dip” opportunity. They also touch on the macroeconomic environment, corporate earnings and geopolitical factors, assessing how these elements impact U.S. exceptionalism relative to Europe and the rest of the world. John Schlegel, head of Global Positioning Intelligence, and Ellen Wang, from the U.S. Market Intelligence team, are joined by Eloise Goulder, head of the wider Global Data Assets & Alpha Group.
This episode was recorded on February 11, 2025.
The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan’s Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions. J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed. For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan.
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