Hate the Game, Not the Player: An Update on the Primary Loan Market
Jun 4, 2024
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Winnie Cisar and Kerry Kantin discuss the strength in the leveraged loan primary market in 2024 due to reduced recession fears and limited M&A activity. They highlight the increase in demand over supply, leading to a wave of repricings benefiting issuers. The team also analyzes market rate-cutting expectations, factors influencing the Fed's actions, and current trends in the primary loan market, including LBO and M&A activity, interest rates impact, specific deals like Mark E., and insights on the private credit market competition.
Abatement of recession fears and lack of M&A activities have led to high demand over supply in the leveraged loan market, favoring issuers and sparking a wave of repricing.
Contrasting views exist on the potential timing and extent of Fed rate cuts, with uncertainty surrounding their actual implementation despite market anticipations of stability.
Deep dives
Leverage Loan Repricing Surge
The podcast discusses the surge in repricing activities within the leverage loan primary market, attributing it to the abatement of recession fears and limited M&A activities. With high demand and limited supply, issuers have managed to reduce spreads due to the excess of available capital, resulting in over $400 billion repriced in the year-to-date, representing a significant portion of market activity. The reduction in interest expenses through repricings and refinancings has positively impacted borrowing costs and interest coverage ratios.
Potential Impact of Rate Cuts on Market Dynamics
The dialogue on the potential timing of Fed rate cuts and their influence on market sentiments unfolds, with contrasting views on the extent of rate cuts and their probable timing. While the market anticipates stability based on rate cut expectations, the actual implementation remains uncertain. Factors like inflation data, GDP revisions, and consumer behavior are cited as critical indicators for potential rate cuts, with projections of up to 100 basis points within the next six to 12 months.
Competing Dynamics Between Private Credit and BSL Markets
The competition and evolving trends between private credit and BSL markets are explored, emphasizing a significant volume of refinancings from broadly syndicated loans to private credit. Both markets vie for LBO opportunities and exhibit competitive pricing and loosening covenant quality. Features like interest in kind and deal structure variations distinguish private credit from BSL, contributing to increased competition and market dynamics between the two sectors.
Winnie Cisar and Kerry Kantin, U.S. Bureau Chief at LevFin Insights, are back with an update on the trends and dynamics of the leveraged loan primary market, emphasizing the surprising strength in 2024. They discuss how a decrease in recession fears and a lack of M&A activity have led to more demand than supply in the market, favoring issuers and sparking a wave of repricing.
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