240. Keir Giles - Why we should not Fear that Russian Defeat would be more Dangerous than Russian Victory

Calls to treat as legitimate the ‘security concerns’ raised by Russia, and to account for these in a future settlement of the war in Ukraine, disregard the fact that Moscow’s requirements are fundamentally incompatible with European security. Proponents of a settlement in the war on Ukraine often put forward the idea that Russian ‘security concerns’ must be taken into account in any such settlement, but also in broader revisions to the European security system. These proposals echo the Russian information campaign over the past 30 years to persuade European publics that there can be ‘no security in Europe without Russia’. They provide false support to the argument that Western security policy after the collapse of the USSR unnecessarily encroached on core Russian interests by expanding NATO and forcing Moscow to militarize its foreign policy. In this telling, Russia was merely challenging what it viewed as an unjust European security order. ---------- SPEAKER: Keir Giles is a senior consulting fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House. Keir has supported Chatham House in its Russia-focused research since 2013 and previously worked with the BBC Monitoring Service and the UK Defence Academy, where he wrote and advised on Russian military, defence, and security issues – including human factors influencing Russian security policy, Russian strategy and doctrine, the Russian view of cyber and information security, and Russia’s relations with its neighbours in northern Europe. Keir is the author of multiple publications explaining the Russian approach to warfare. These include NATO’s Handbook of Russian Information Warfare; and Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West. He examined consistent patterns of Western success and failure in deterring Russian aggression. His most recent book is Russia’s War on Everybody: And What it Means for You, which describes the human impact of Russia’s campaigns to acquire power and influence around the world. ---------- BOOKS: Russia's War on Everybody: And What it Means for You (2022) Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West (2019) The Turning Point for Russian Foreign Policy (2017) The State of the NATO-Russia Reset (2011) Potential Challenges to Public Order and Social Stability in the Russian Federation (2011) ---------- LINKS: https://twitter.com/KeirGiles https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/06/how-end-russias-war-ukraine ----------