Scarcity, Politics, and Processing: The New Rules of Mining Investment

Recording date: 25th November 2025

Derek Mcpherson and Sam Pelaez of Olive Resource Capital highlight critical developments reshaping mining investment, with asset scarcity and supply chain vulnerabilities emerging as defining challenges for the sector.

The ongoing Anglo American situation exemplifies limited growth options for major miners. Despite BHP quickly dismissing weekend speculation about a renewed bid, the December 9th shareholder vote underscores how few tier-one assets exist that can materially impact large producers' portfolios. Pelaez notes these critical assets remain concentrated among major companies like Teck, Anglo, and Glencore, with many already partnered on world-scale Chilean copper projects. The executives emphasize that while acquisition targets are scarce, "eventually someone has to build something, and the biggest companies are best positioned to build something."

Sovereign wealth funds are now competing for direct critical minerals exposure. The Qatar Investment Authority's memorandum of understanding with Ivanhoe Mines to support Democratic Republic of Congo growth mirrors earlier Chinese sovereign investments in tier-one African assets. This development signals Middle Eastern capital seeking strategic positioning in what Pelaez views as an emerging electrification commodities bull market, though he stresses there are "simply not enough investable assets and companies for everyone to get direct exposure."

The gold equity market continues maturing, with Muddy Waters pitching pre-revenue explorer Snowline Gold at the generalist Sohn Conference—a significant milestone indicating institutional capital flowing beyond traditional mining investors. This follows sustained inflows into the GDX ETF and suggests generalists are increasingly willing to evaluate unprofitable developers.

However, the most critical structural challenge remains Western processing capabilities. Despite domestic mining efforts, North American materials still require Chinese processing for battery precursor conversion. Pelaez emphasizes the West lags China "more than a decade" in rare earths, lithium, and graphite processing, creating supply chain vulnerabilities that policy alone cannot address. For investors, understanding complete processing pathways matters as much as resource quality when evaluating critical minerals projects.

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