UBS On-Air: Market Moves Ahead of the curve with Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi
Sep 14, 2025
This week’s discussion dives into key market signals and the economic outlook. Ulrike analyzes inflation trends and highlights Oracle's impressive earnings as signs of a positive economic environment. The conversation shifts to the implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rates. Additionally, the impact of Chinese open-source AI models on U.S. equities and bonds is explored, shedding light on an evolving market landscape.
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Inflation Prints Support A Rate Cut
- August PPI and CPI broadly met expectations and point to a more benign inflation backdrop.
- This reduces the likelihood that the Fed will resist cutting rates at the upcoming meeting.
AI Drives Heavy Cloud Capex
- Oracle's earnings revealed massive cloud revenue projections that energized markets and highlighted AI infrastructure demand.
- UBS estimates compute needs must quintuple by 2030 to support consumer and enterprise AI growth.
China Leads In Open-Source Models
- Chinese open-source models are rapidly rising in both capability and downloads, outpacing other regional open models.
- This signals China shifting its historical labor edge into a digital AI advantage.