Chinese Whispers: Why Beijing is wary of a Russo-North Korean alliance
Nov 11, 2024
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Historian John Delury, a visiting professor specializing in Cold War history and the Korean Peninsula, joins the discussion to unravel the complex ties among North Korea, Russia, and China. Delury highlights the alarming presence of 11,000 North Korean troops in Russia, signaling a dramatic shift in alliances. He explores the implications of North Korea's military aid to Moscow, the historical autonomy of the North amidst external influences, and the delicate balance China must maintain in this evolving geopolitical landscape.
North Korea's unprecedented deployment of troops in Russia underscores a significant shift in regional military dynamics amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
China's muted response to North Korea's military involvement reflects underlying tensions and a cautious approach to maintain stability in the region.
Deep dives
North Korea's Military Support to Russia
Recent reports indicate that North Korea has deployed approximately 11,000 troops in Russia, specifically in the Kursk region, to participate in combat against Ukraine. This unprecedented military involvement marks the first instance of an East Asian military unit engaging in European conflict, signaling a significant escalation in the ongoing war. While North Korean troops are reportedly well-trained and ready for action, the situation raises questions about the nature of their involvement and the potential consequences for the conflict's dynamics. The historical context reveals an intricate relationship among North Korea, Russia, and China, underscoring the complexities of alliances in the region.
China's Calculated Silence
China's muted response to North Korea's military involvement in Russia highlights the complicated dynamics of its relationship with both countries. Despite being an ally of North Korea since 1961, China's lack of public commentary on recent developments suggests underlying tensions and a strategic desire to maintain neutrality in the conflict. This silence can be interpreted as a sign of unease, reflecting cooling relations between Beijing and Pyongyang amidst escalating military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Observers speculate that China's reserved approach may stem from a cautious assessment of how North Korea's actions will impact regional stability and its own geopolitical interests.
Distrust Between China and North Korea
Despite being ideologically aligned, there exists a considerable amount of distrust between North Korea and China, as both nations navigate a complex relationship shaped by historical events. North Korea has a long history of balancing its diplomatic ties between Russia and China, often using its position to extract concessions from both sides. Instances of North Korean leadership challenges and purges have further exacerbated suspicions, as Kim Jong-un has taken significant steps to consolidate power while keeping Beijing at arm's length. This ongoing distrust complicates any potential collaboration, indicating that while both countries are seen as allies, their relationship is fraught with internal contradictions.
Implications of North Korea's Actions for Global Politics
North Korea's increased involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could have significant repercussions for global political dynamics, particularly concerning U.S. and Chinese strategies. The U.S. has sought to persuade China to exert influence over North Korea, which complicates Beijing’s position as it seeks to maintain stability in the region while navigating its own strategic interests. Additionally, prolonged North Korean military support for Russia may lead to tighter alignment between China, Russia, and North Korea, challenging existing geopolitical frameworks. Observers are concerned that escalating cooperation among these nations could embolden their ambitions while presenting a united front against Western influences.
There have been reports that some 11,000 North Korean troops are present in Russia and preparing to take part in the Russian invasion. While not acknowledged by either country, if true, this would mark a historic milestone: the first East Asian state to send troops to Europe since the Mongol Empire.
And yet, both countries’ most powerful neighbour and ally – China – has remained suspiciously quiet about this new development. Beijing’s silence may well express a deep distrust and unease that actually characterises China’s relationship with its so-called allies.
To get into the recent developments and what we can learn from the history of the relationship between these three countries, the historian John Delury joins the podcast. He is an expert on the Cold War and the history of China and the Korean peninsula. He is a visiting Professor at Luiss University and author of Agents of Subversion.
Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Cindy Yu.
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