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Learning Bayesian Statistics

#92 How to Make Decision Under Uncertainty, with Gerd Gigerenzer

Oct 4, 2023
Gerd Gigerenzer, expert in decision-making under uncertainty, discusses topics such as choosing the appropriate statistical approach, the intersection between Bayesian thinking and heuristics, the need for statistical education, the effectiveness of teaching decision-making tools to doctors, and the admiration for Ada Lovelace and Marie Curie.
01:04:45

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Using natural frequencies in risk communication can lead to better understanding and decision-making in uncertain situations.
  • Simple heuristics can outperform complex models in high uncertainty environments by providing more robust and adaptive decision-making.

Deep dives

The Importance of Understanding Uncertainty and Decision-Making

Understanding uncertainty and making decisions under uncertainty are crucial aspects of decision-making. Gert Gijon Henser, the director of the Haunting Center for Risk Literacy at the University of Positem, Germany, emphasizes the significance of these topics. He highlights the need to confront deep questions about decision-making, risk communication, and the meaning of rationality. Through his research and training programs, Gert has helped professionals in various fields, such as U.S. Federal judges, German physicians, and top managers, improve their decision-making skills. He also advocates for the use of simple heuristics in uncertain situations and argues that they can outperform complex models in certain contexts.

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