Discussing the current state of credit markets and the impact of interest rates, supply chain issues, and fiscal stimulus. Analyzing the shift towards leveraged buyouts in the loan market and the presence of froth in the leverage loan market. Exploring the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts and the impact of low interest rates on the housing market and economy.
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Quick takeaways
Despite the rise in interest rates, default rates in credit markets have not surged as expected due to COVID-induced defaults and the cleansing effect.
Credit investments in the current environment are compelling due to attractive yields, prices, and spreads in the high yield bond market.
Deep dives
The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Credit Markets
The podcast episode discusses the impact of rising interest rates on credit markets. It explores the reasons behind the recent rise in interest rates, such as supply chain issues and increased demand due to stimulus measures. The central banks globally have been forced to follow a playbook of raising interest rates quickly to address the inflation push. The guest, Wayne Doll, from Oaktree, explains the definition of risk at Oaktree, emphasizing the importance of minimizing loss for investors. Despite the rise in interest rates, the default rates in credit markets have not surged as expected, partly due to the cleansing effect of the COVID-induced defaults. However, looking forward, there may be challenges ahead with the looming maturity wall and refinancing needs for companies in the coming years.
Evaluating Credit Markets and Trends
The podcast episode delves into the evaluation of credit markets in the current environment. It highlights that while credit spreads may not have widened as much as anticipated, the yields have become attractive, making credit investments compelling. The guest suggests three ways to assess value in fixed-income markets: yield, price, and spread. The attractive yield and price levels in the high yield bond market, coupled with median spreads, make it an appealing investment. The discussion also touches upon the expectations of higher default rates, which, so far, have not materialized significantly.
The State of Commercial Real Estate
The podcast episode addresses the state of commercial real estate, specifically focusing on the challenges faced by the office sector. While there are concerns about the weakness in some areas of commercial real estate, such as offices, it is noted that the impact is not uniformly distributed across the market. The extension and refinancing options available in commercial real estate can postpone potential problems, making it difficult to determine the full extent of the situation. The guest also mentions the strong role of the residential housing market in supporting consumer confidence and spending.
Uncertainty and Interpretation in the Current Economic Climate
The podcast episode highlights the prevailing uncertainty in interpreting the current economic landscape. There is a challenge in defining what is considered 'normal' due to various factors impacting traditional economic measures. The labor market's indicators, inflation, and asset prices require careful assessment. The market sentiment has swung from predicting an imminent recession to doubting the possibility of a recession altogether. The guest emphasizes the difficulty of deciphering the changes in risk indicators and the potential consequences of persistent high rates, particularly on the budget and public debt burden.
In theory, the Federal Reserve operates by tightening the supply of credit. Or at least making it more close. Yet so far, despite the rate hikes, the economy has remained resilient. And credit spreads have remained surprisingly tight. So what's going on? Where are the risks? Why are some pockets of the credit markets showing weakness, while others are rock solid? On this episode of the podcast, which was recorded live at the Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach, California, we speak with Wayne Dahl, a managing director and investment risk officer at Oaktree Capital Management, to get a broader lay of the land.