UBS On-Air: Market Moves
CIO Global Livestream: Rates, votes and volatility
Oct 2, 2024
Mark Haefele, the Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, teams up with Kiran Ganesh, Jason Draho, and Carolina Corvalan to dissect market dynamics. They dive into the implications of a potentially divided Congress on trade and tax policies. The conversation includes the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and its impact on fixed income investments. They also discuss how electoral volatility affects market behavior and offer strategies for capital preservation amid changing interest rates and inflation pressures.
27:08
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Quick takeaways
- The current US election landscape shows a tight race with slight favor for Harris, yet election strategies are unlikely to change significantly.
- The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is a proactive measure aimed at maintaining a strong labor market amidst gradual economic cooling.
Deep dives
US Election Landscape
The discussion highlights the current state of the US elections, emphasizing that the race remains tight with a slight edge for Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump. Recent polls suggest that public perception favors Harris following her debate performance, yet the predictive markets indicate only a marginal shift in probabilities regarding election outcomes. The analysis identifies a 40% likelihood of Harris winning the presidency alongside a divided Congress, compared to a 35% chance for Trump. This environment signals that the election strategies might not change significantly in the upcoming weeks as the candidates prepare for a possible extended campaign period.
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