The Dangerous Interregnum - Geoff Roberts, Glenn Diesen & Matthew Blackburn
May 23, 2024
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Academics Geoff Roberts, Glenn Diesen, and Matthew Blackburn discuss the global crisis, new cold war risks, and the shift away from the US-centric world order. They analyze strategic empathy in geopolitics, the role of the global south, and the need for strategic diplomacy over confrontation. The conversation delves into changing power dynamics under the Trump administration, tensions in Ukraine, and the risks of misinterpretations in dealing with conflicts.
The shift from unipolarity to multipolarity challenges American hegemony and calls for multiple power centers globally.
Divergence between international law and liberal order weakens global acceptance and emphasizes power dynamics over legitimacy.
Strategic empathy is crucial in understanding global perspectives for conflict resolution and promoting peace and stability.
Maintaining conflicts for hegemonic dominance risks unintended escalations and calls for strategic reassessment in international relations.
Deep dives
Shift from Unipolarity to Multipolarity
The discussion focuses on the transition from a unipolar system post-Cold War to a multipolar order. It contrasts the unipolar American hegemony aimed at establishing a liberal international order with the current push for multipolarity by other nations, seeking economic and military power centers. The critique emphasizes the challenge of maintaining legitimacy and resources in a hegemonic system, leading to a shift in the global power distribution and calls for several centers of power in contrast to American dominance.
Legitimacy and Power Dynamics
The analysis delves into the interplay between legitimacy and power dynamics in international relations. It highlights the divergence between international law based on sovereign equality and the liberal international order's selective application of humanitarian principles, leading to diminishing global acceptance. The discussion underscores the shift from the rules-based international order to a hegemonic system enforcing liberal democratic norms and the challenges posed by balancing power and legitimacy.
Strategic Empathy and International Order
The concept of strategic empathy is explored in understanding the perspectives of different global actors in shaping the international order. The discussion navigates how strategic empathy can offer insights into resolving conflicts and navigating power dynamics. It contrasts the current lack of strategic empathy in Western policies with the potential role of public sentiment and global south nations in promoting a more empathetic approach for peace and stability.
Maintaining Peace amidst Conflict
The conversation evaluates the paradox of striving for peace while perpetuating conflict to uphold hegemony. It examines the consequences of wartime alliances in maintaining power structures reliant on conflict. The dialogue prompts reflections on the challenges of balancing overextension in pursuing dominance and the need for strategic reassessment in managing international relations and avoiding unintended escalations.
The Role of Conflict in Maintaining Influence
Maintaining tensions and conflicts with countries like Russia and China allows the U.S. to exert its influence in regions like Europe and Asia. This strategy is seen as crucial for the U.S. to prevent a reduction in its political influence, especially when European nations become less reliant on American security guarantees.
Challenges of Peace-Time Alliances in a Hegemonic System
The danger of peace-time alliances in a hegemonic system is highlighted, emphasizing the need for weakening adversaries and keeping allies dependent. The speaker discusses how maintaining conflicts aligns with the goal of hegemonic dominance and explains the historical analogy of Nixon's approach in detente, suggesting a shift towards detente may be necessary for the U.S. to navigate current complex international dynamics.
Risks of Escalation and Lack of Diplomatic Solutions in Ukraine Conflict
The escalation of conflict in Ukraine poses significant dangers due to Western desperation and reckless actions. The absence of diplomatic efforts and the rejection of peace agreements may lead to a situation where Russia sees escalatory actions as the only viable response. The speaker warns of the potential consequences of provoking Russia further, highlighting the need for strategic empathy and diplomatic solutions to avoid a catastrophic outcome.