Why Should We Care About China’s Law of the Sea? | with Isaac Kardon

Episode 110 features Isaac Kardon, Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of "China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order." Kardon joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss how China uses domestic law, coast guard operations, and strategic ambiguity to reshape international maritime norms - especially in the South and East China Seas and the Yellow Sea.

China’s Approach to Maritime Law: Kardon explains that China’s participation in international treaties, such as UNCLOS, differs fundamentally from rule-of-law societies like the U.S. Rather than constraining itself, China uses treaties as instruments for political and strategic advantage, showing significant flexibility in interpretation and enforcement.

Global Impact of Indo-Pacific Maritime Order: The Indo-Pacific isn’t just a regional issue - what happens there affects global trade, technology supply chains, and the daily lives of people worldwide. The COVID pandemic and events like the Ever Given incident in the Suez Canal reveal the fragility of maritime order, making disruptions to the global order dangerous for prosperity and peace.

Frictions in the South China Sea: China’s ratification of UNCLOS presented challenges, notably the framework that limits China’s ability to claim “historic” zones like the “nine-dash line.” Despite arbitration rulings against Chinese claims, China responds in ways that undermine the effectiveness of international mechanisms, often using ambiguous claims and building capacity to assert control regardless of legal setbacks.

Law, Power, and Regional Responses: The episode highlights the contrast between the legalistic approaches of “cricket-playing nations” and China’s more instrumental use of law. Small states in the region rely on legal frameworks for protection, but China’s power allows it to bend or contest those rules.

Recent Developments: China has expanded its exclusion zone around Scarborough Shoal and used environmental pretext to assert control, demonstrating a pattern of using lawfare as a tool for broader strategic objectives.

Future Directions: The discussion covers the gridlock over the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct process, the decline of sentimentality about U.S. leadership in maritime law, and the general skepticism about international law’s ability to constrain powerful states. The hosts discuss the potential for the Indo-Pacific maritime disputes to become the setting for geopolitical drama, involving all facets from local fishermen and coast guards to great power competition.

Kardon argues that China’s lawfare bolsters its capabilities: strength and presence on the water matter just as much, if not more, than legal arguments. He describes the situation as “possession is nine-tenths of the law”—a reality that smaller states cannot match with mere legal claims.

Policy Takeaways: International law matters less when powerful states refuse to be constrained. China’s approach threatens regional cooperation and legal consistency.

The episode calls for listeners to recognize how Indo-Pacific maritime order shapes global stability, trade, and strategic realities - and provides both practical insights and a thought-provoking narrative, encouraging listeners to see Indo-Pacific maritime disputes not just as legal questions but as complex dramas involving power, law, and the future of global cooperation.

👉 Visit Isaac's web site, or follow him on X, @IBKardon

👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific