Independent Thinking Ukraine’s impossible choice
May 2, 2025
Orysia Lutsevych runs the Ukraine forum at Chatham House, focusing on Ukraine's political landscape, while Matthew Savill is the Director of Military Sciences at RUSI, bringing military strategy expertise. They discuss Ukraine's tough choices regarding potential peace deals and territorial losses amid ongoing aggression from Russia. The conversation covers battlefield dynamics, Ukraine's resilience, and the implications of shifting international alliances, emphasizing the critical balance between sovereignty and survival in turbulent times.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Ukraine-US Mineral Deal Strategy
- Ukraine signed a mineral deal with the US to encourage investment and maintain US engagement in the war.
- The deal cleverly includes military assistance as part of business deals, not as free aid.
Static Frontline and Defense Advantage
- The conflict is now a slow, attritional war with long, static frontlines stretching over 1,000 km.
- Defense has had the advantage due to minefields, obstacles, and technology like drones and sensors.
Total War and Civilian Mobilization
- Russia’s war includes relentless missile and drone attacks on civilians, requiring Ukraine’s Patriot air defense.
- Ukraine’s society remains total mobilized, including 3D printing drone parts at home.