Infinite Loops

Annie Duke – How to Decide (EP.22)

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Oct 15, 2020
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INSIGHT

Resulting

  • People often confuse good outcomes with good decisions, a phenomenon called resulting.
  • This is because decision quality is subjective, while outcomes are clear wins or losses.
ANECDOTE

2016 Election

  • Annie Duke discusses Hillary Clinton's 2016 election loss and the perceived mistake of neglecting the Rust Belt.
  • Despite extensive media analysis, no one publicly identified this blunder beforehand, highlighting hindsight bias.
ADVICE

Evidentiary Record

  • Create an evidentiary record of your decision-making process.
  • This naturally combats hindsight bias by documenting your thinking at the time.
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