Macro Mondays Will the Fed Cut in December?
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Nov 24, 2025 
Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, teams up with Mikkel Rosenvold to dissect the latest market dynamics. They explore the significance of December's Fed cuts and the importance of balance sheet considerations. The duo discusses the polarized FOMC, geopolitical shifts tied to Ukraine, and potential impacts on liquidity, especially regarding Bitcoin. Additionally, they assess UK fiscal risks and the cyclical nature of renewables and nuclear investments. A whirlwind of insights for anyone keeping an eye on markets!
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Balance Sheet, Not Just A Rate Cut
- December's Fed meeting is a make-or-break moment driven more by balance-sheet moves than a simple rate cut.
- John Williams' push to expand the Fed balance sheet shifts probabilities toward near-term easing and technical QE.
Fed Committee Is Politically Polarized
- The FOMC shows clear internal polarization between pro-cut and anti-cut members this cycle.
- Political appointments amplify this split, making consensus harder and outcomes more uncertain.
Use November CPI To Position For December
- Watch the November inflation print released on the December FOMC day; a soft reading likely seals a cut.
- Use that report to reassess positioning before the Fed announcement rather than assuming cuts will happen.