Philosophy For Our Times How to Make the Right Decision | Jason McKenzie Alexander
May 26, 2020
In this engaging discussion, Jason McKenzie Alexander, Head of Philosophy at the London School of Economics, delves into decision-making and the cognitive biases that cloud our judgment. He challenges listeners to understand how evidence and intuition interact, highlighting pitfalls in reasoning illustrated by medical testing examples. The conversation also explores the complexities of coincidences and how they impact perception, alongside a fascinating case of gender bias in university admissions. Alexander emphasizes the role of narratives in shaping our decisions, exposing the flaws in human reasoning.
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Importance of Base Rates in Decisions
- Base rates dramatically affect probability interpretation in decision making.
- Misjudging base rates leads to overestimation of the likelihood of positive test results or risk increases.
Lottery Wins and Coincidence Paradox
- A New Jersey woman won the lottery twice, seemingly a 1 in 16 trillion chance.
- But considering all players over time, such coincidences are much more likely than intuition suggests.
Simpson's Paradox in Admissions
- Aggregated data can create misleading impressions, like false gender bias in admissions.
- Differences in application rates across departments, not bias in acceptance, explain disparities.
