Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 340: Robert Koenigsberger on EM Cycles, China's Turnaround, and the New Era of Private Credit
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Jan 7, 2026 In this conversation, Robert Koenigsberger, Founder and CIO of Gramercy, shares insights from his 36 years of experience in emerging markets. He explores the shift from caution to FOMO in EM, highlighting a role reversal with developed markets post-COVID. Robert critiques misleading EM labels and identifies selective investment opportunities in distressed Chinese property. He discusses the strategic approach to Russian and Ukrainian bonds and emphasizes the burgeoning potential in EM private credit, drawing parallels to early DM lending.
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EM Cycles: Fear To FOMO
- Emerging markets swing between fear and fear-of-missing-out, driven by macro and sentiment cycles.
- In 2025 EMD local led returns partly because of dollar weakness and shifting investor preference.
Post‑COVID Role Reversal
- Post-COVID, many emerging markets behaved like developed ones by taking decisive anti-inflation policy.
- Meanwhile developed markets adopted looser fiscal/monetary traits, blurring the traditional divide.
Ignore Broad EM Labels
- Country labels and indices obscure true asset characteristics and can mislead investors.
- Gramercy focuses on bottom-up assessment of credits rather than top-down emerging/developed labels.