Why Should We Care if Taiwan is a Political Tinderbox? | with J. Michael Cole

Is Taiwan’s greatest vulnerability China’s military or political warfare from within? J. Michael Cole—former Canadian intelligence officer, Senior Fellow with Global Taiwan Institute and author of “The Taiwan Tinderbox: The Island Nation at the Center of the New Cold War”—reveals how Chinese Communist Party influence operations, Taiwan independence debates and political divisions threaten cross-strait stability more than invasion scenarios.

Taiwan’s Internal Security Crisis

Cole exposes how CCP proxies use cognitive warfare, espionage and co-optation to weaken Taiwan’s defense capabilities from within. Taiwan’s democracy creates a paradox: countering Chinese influence without becoming authoritarian. Opposition parties blocking defense spending increases—Taiwan aims for 5% GDP military spending—sends conflicting signals about Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense, weakening deterrence against Beijing.

Taiwan Identity & Independence Movements

Taiwan’s divisions trace to indigenous peoples, Japanese colonial rule (1895-1945, and post-1949 Kuomintang (KMT) arrival. Cole identifies two critical movements: Taidu (Taiwan independence) and Huadu (Republic of China supporters opposing Beijing annexation). United, they’d form a powerful defense against the Chinese pressure campaign, but real unity has been elusive.

Hong Kong’s Cautionary Tale

Beijing’s crushing of Hong Kong democracy under “one country, two systems” became China’s worst propaganda failure for Taiwan unification. Young Taiwanese watched personal connections to Hong Kong destroyed, solidifying opposition across the political spectrum, so that even the dovish KMT publicly rejects Chinese unification proposals.

Chinese Cognitive Warfare Success

While China failed to convince Taiwanese they’re Chinese—unification support remains below 5%—Beijing has succeeded at fostering divisions and increasing skepticism of America’s reliability as a defense partner. Internet content farms and co-opted politicians amplify CCP narratives from within, exploiting Taiwan democracy against itself.

The Greatest Threat: Accidental Escalation

Cole’s nightmare scenario isn’t invasion but normalized PLA presence near Taiwan. Chinese naval forces, drones, coast guard and maritime militia crowding Taiwan’s waters increase collision and miscommunication risks. Beijing stands ready to exploit incidents through disinformation, blame Taiwan, and then escalate in unpredictable ways.

Taiwan’s Defense Strategy Evolution

Taiwan has shifted from passive defense to counter-force capabilities: domestically produced anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles targeting China. This has required US approval, marking a major US Taiwan relations policy shift. Taiwan now emphasizes semiconductor supply chain criticality and first island chain security to make conflict consequences resonate globally.

Why Taiwan’s Democracy Matters

Cole’s 20-year Taiwan residence reflects the island’s resilience: a vibrant democracy thriving under constant Chinese military threat, successful despite isolation, and a model for defending democratic values without authoritarianism.

👉 Follow J. Michael Cole at the Global Taiwan Institute or on X at @jmichaelcole1

👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific