Metascience 101 - EP5: "How and Why to Run an Experiment"
Oct 9, 2024
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Join Professors Heidi Williams and Paul Niehaus, along with Emily Oehlsen from Open Philanthropy and Jim Savage from Schmidt Futures, as they unravel the art of experimentation in metascience. Discover how careful evaluation can inform policy-making and improve research quality. They tackle the complexities of impact evaluations, share insights from the RISE program on identifying talent through innovative methods, and discuss the importance of evidence-based practices in philanthropy for real-world change.
Metascience experimentation must remain relevant to policymakers by effectively translating research insights into actionable policy changes.
The RISE program exemplifies the challenges of identifying and cultivating talent through innovative and empirical research methodologies.
Impact evaluation is crucial for organizations to understand intervention consequences, enabling them to make informed adjustments and decisions.
Deep dives
Understanding the Scope of Research
Research encompasses a wide array of methodologies, extending beyond traditional academic papers. It can include qualitative methods, innovative data collection techniques, and retrospective evaluations of past events. The goal is to improve organizational performance and enhance decision-making processes rather than merely producing publishable results. This broader definition emphasizes the importance of actionable insights that can drive real-world improvements and inform policies.
Experimentation in Drug Development
The drug development process employs a structured series of trials to assess efficacy and safety, usually classified into phases. Phase one trials focus on safety in animal models, followed by phase two trials to evaluate efficacy in a smaller human sample, and phase three trials that analyze results at scale. This tiered approach generates evidence necessary for making informed decisions regarding drug implementation. It illustrates how careful experimentation can transform an idea into an impactful treatment.
Challenges in Measuring Research Quality
There is skepticism regarding the feasibility of measuring research on research due to the varying definitions of high-quality science. Measurement becomes complex when trying to assess talent identification, an area seen as particularly challenging. An example discussed involves the RISE program, which aims to identify and cultivate talent among teenagers by incorporating extensive research and experimental methods. This endeavor illustrates the necessity of tackling difficult questions with practical research to yield improved results.
The Importance of Impact Evaluation
Impact evaluation is essential for understanding the consequences of interventions and making necessary adjustments. By clearly defining goals, establishing effective metrics, and employing counterfactual reasoning, organizations can measure true impact. Experiments serve as a robust method to draw reliable conclusions that influence policy and funding decisions. This approach addresses common pitfalls that occur when assessing outcomes based solely on interactions or observed changes.
Innovative Approaches to Experimentation
Challenges in conducting experiments often arise from concerns about feasibility and cost, which can deter organizations from pursuing empirical evaluations. Examples from fields like cash transfers illustrate a successful shift in narrative due to rigorous experimentation. Multi-armed bandit designs and adaptive trials, like those utilized during the COVID-19 pandemic, offer accessible methods for real-time learning. By fostering an environment that encourages experimentation, organizations can refine their practices and increase overall effectiveness.
IN THIS EPISODE: Professor Heidi Williams, Professor Paul Niehaus, Emily Oehlsen, and Jim Savage dive in on a practical “how-to” for experimentation and evaluation in metascience. They discuss how to keep metascience experimentation and evaluation relevant to policymakers.
“Metascience 101” is a nine-episode set of interviews that doubles as a crash course in the debates, issues, and ideas driving the modern metascience movement. We investigate why building a genuine “science of science” matters, and how research in metascience is translating into real-world policy changes.
Chapters
(00:00:00) Introduction
(00:00:37) Research on research
(00:03:34) Identifying talent, RISE program
(00:14:44) Impact evaluation, GiveDirectly
(00:17:57) Decision making with impact evaluation
(00:31:45) Replications
(00:35:11) Existential vs. operational experiments and evaluation
(00:42:21) Outcome measurability: benchmarks, surrogates and new evidence
(00:52:01) GiveDirectly as example of evidence-based approach
(00:55:01) Government evidence-based as a way
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.macroscience.org
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