More 2026 trends: Solar costs, oil oversupply, and the startup slump

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Jan 22, 2026

Nat Bullard, a veteran energy analyst and co-founder of Halcyon, joins for a deep dive into decarbonization trends. They explore the surprising resilience of clean energy stocks and discuss the dramatic drop in U.S. energy startup investments. Bullard details the global oil oversupply's impact on prices and highlights China's growing dominance in vehicle production. Additionally, they examine Australia's rapid adoption of residential battery storage, illustrating key shifts in the energy landscape.

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INSIGHT

Clean Energy Stocks Outperformed In 2025

The S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in 2025 by rising ~40% versus ~20% for the others.
Nat Bullard says this shows underlying global market support for clean energy despite political rhetoric.

INSIGHT

Energy Startup Funding Plummeted Since 2022

U.S. energy startup investment collapsed from about $8B in 2022 to ~ $2B in 2025 according to CARTA data.
Bullard highlights this as part of a broader 2021-era peak that many sectors have not returned to.

ADVICE

Prepare For An Energy Funding Rebound

Expect energy investment to rebound as energy becomes central to conversations about AI, sovereignty, and data centers.
Shayle Kann bets 2026 U.S. energy startup funding will rise substantially above the $2B 2025 level.

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We are back for Part 2 of Shayle’s double header conversation with the veteran energy analyst Nat Bullard, dissecting his annual presentation on the state of decarbonization.

If you missed it, we recommend you go back and listen to Part 1, which was released last week.

In this episode, Shayle and Nat shift their focus from data centers to exploring other intriguing trends found in the data that Nat assembled—from the surprising resilience of clean energy stocks to the rising costs of solar installations in the US.

Shayle and Nat dig into more topics including:

Why the S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq last year
The steep drop in U.S. energy startup investment—from $8 billion in 2022 to just over $2 billion in 2025—and why Shayle thinks 2026 will see a massive rebound
The impacts of an enormous oversupply of oil
China’s skyrocketing share of global vehicle production
The remarkable pace of residential battery storage adoption in Australia

Resources

Nat Bullard’s full 2026 presentation
Catalyst: 2026 trends: Gas turbines, Texas’ load queue, and China electrifies
Catalyst: 2025 trends: aerosols, oil demand, and carbon removal
Catalyst: More 2025 trends: DeepSeek, plug-in hybrids, and curtailment
Latitude: The year resiliency investment began to go mainstream
Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Max Savage Levenson. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.

Catalyst is brought to you by Uplight. Uplight activates energy customers and their connected devices to generate, shift, and save energy—improving grid resilience and energy affordability while accelerating decarbonization. Learn how Uplight is helping utilities unlock flexible load at scale at uplight.com.

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