Ep18 “Investigating Implausible Theories” with John Ioannidis
Jan 18, 2023
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John Ioannidis, researcher and expert in scientific theory evaluation, joins Jules and Jonathan to discuss the value of investigating implausible theories and the principle of Occam's Razor. They explore the challenges of navigating science in the age of misinterpretation and the need for humility, rigorous research, and transparency in scientific investigation.
Exploring implausible theories is valuable for business decisions, but evidence-based decision-making and active pursuit of challenging evidence are crucial to avoid erroneous beliefs.
The erosion of trust in scientists and the scientific method highlights the need for humility, open-mindedness, and continuous improvement in scientific research and peer review processes.
Deep dives
The Importance of Investigating Implausible Theories in Business Decisions
In this episode, the hosts discuss the value of exploring implausible theories in the context of business decisions. While commonly believed theories tend to be true, there are historical examples where widely accepted ideas turned out to be false. The scientific method is highlighted as the best defense against erroneous beliefs, emphasizing the need for evidence-based decision-making. It is crucial to actively seek evidence that challenges one's own beliefs, even though people are generally resistant to changing their minds. Okem's Razor, often misunderstood as favoring the simplest theory, is redefined as favoring theories that are not overly complicated due to cluges or ad hoc adjustments. The significance of incentives in evaluating implausible theories is also explored, with Galileo Galilei's example demonstrating his lack of personal gain in proposing an implausible theory. Furthermore, the amount of money at stake and the implications of a theory should be considered, informing the decision to invest resources in its investigation.
Challenges to Adhering to the Scientific Method
The erosion of trust in scientists and the scientific method is discussed in this episode. Science is sometimes misused for personal or group gain rather than for the benefit of society. This misuse, along with the perception that science can be oppressive or conflicting with personal interests, contributes to the skepticism towards scientists. The episode highlights the danger of science becoming a weapon in political and partisan battles rather than an objective pursuit of knowledge. The Great Barrington Declaration and other similar instances are cited as examples of this warfare mentality and the lack of rigorous debate. The need for humility, open-mindedness, and the ability to admit errors and consider other perspectives is stressed to rebuild trust in science.
Improving Scientific Research and Peer Review
The episode raises the importance of improving scientific research and the peer review process. The need for greater transparency and scrutiny is emphasized to ensure the validity and reliability of scientific papers. The weakness of the current peer review system is acknowledged, where only a small percentage of papers are significantly improved or corrected through the process. The episode calls for allowing a wider range of views and criticism, avoiding the silencing of dissenting opinions, and fostering an environment of continuous revision and improvement in scientific thinking. Transparency, cooperation, and data accessibility are particularly crucial when dealing with topics of great importance, such as the origin of viruses like COVID-19.
In science, we often hear about new discoveries or theories that could change our way of thinking. In the business world, a start-up might promise a revolution in a specific industry, if it can get the right investments. So, when is it worth believing or betting on one of these new theories, and when is it a waste of time? In this episode of All Else Equal, Jules and Jonathan discuss how we can all use the principle of Occam’s Razor (the idea that the simplest theory is often the correct one) in many different areas of our life.
Helping them explain the real world practice of this is John Ioannidis, a professor of Medicine and Epidemiology at Stanford University. John was the first academic to question the practices of Theranos, the company co-founded by Elizabeth Holmes that claimed it would change medicine with its new method of testing blood. He criticized the lack of peer reviewed research of the company’s methods, while at the same time investors were making it a billion dollar company. John tells Jules and Jonathan about this experience, as well as how Occam’s Razor comes into play with a lot of scientific research.