The podcast explores the lack of clarity and strategy in the Israeli offensive in Gaza, the regional dynamics and risks in the conflict, the understanding of Iranian strategy and proxy groups, the US role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Biden administration's strategy, and the different perspectives within the Israeli government regarding the future of Gaza.
The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict poses a risk of escalating into a full-scale regional war.
The Israeli government's approach of maintaining a holding pattern without a political resolution has failed.
There are doubts about Israel's strategy in the conflict, with concerns about goals and motivations behind actions.
Deep dives
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and Regional War
The podcast discusses the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict and raises concerns about the possibility of it escalating into a full-scale regional war. There is a lack of hopeful signs that the conflict will be resolved or that key actors will follow a better path. The Israeli government's approach of maintaining a holding pattern without an agreed political resolution to the conflict has shown its failure. The potential dangers of continuing this approach are highlighted, with warnings about the need to address the underlying realities and the importance of finding a political solution. The discussion also touches on US involvement, Israeli perspectives on civilian casualties, international opinion, and the challenges of achieving a two-state solution.
Israeli Political Landscape and Netanyahu's Influence
The podcast delves into the Israeli political landscape and the influence of Prime Minister Netanyahu. It highlights the blame placed on Netanyahu for the country's security failure and the erosion of support for the two-state solution. The discussion explores the internal politics in Israel, including the division over the holding pattern approach and the belief that Israel maintains control over Palestinian life. It also delves into the political considerations at play, such as Netanyahu's personal situation and the influence of extremist parties in the Israeli government.
Unclear Israeli Strategy in Gaza
The podcast raises questions about the clarity of Israel's strategy in the ongoing conflict in Gaza. While there is a goal of achieving total victory, the markers of this victory are not clearly defined. The discussion acknowledges the difficulty of discerning Israel's strategy from the outside and the perception that Israel aims for the greatest possible destruction in Gaza. There are doubts about the goals and the motivations behind Israeli actions, with concerns about the political considerations in decision-making.
Regional Dynamics and Risks of Escalation
The podcast examines the regional dynamics and the risks of escalation beyond the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It points to the concerns raised shortly after the October 7th attacks regarding the potential for a regional war. The discussion emphasizes the need for caution and the challenges of maintaining control and calibrating responses in a situation with unpredictable non-state actors. The evolving conflicts in the region, such as attacks in the Red Sea and tensions on Israel's northern border with Lebanon, contribute to the complex and risky landscape.
US Leverage, Israeli Politics, and the Two-State Solution
The podcast explores the role of the United States and its leverage in shaping Israeli decision-making and the prospects for a two-state solution. It highlights the difficulties in achieving a grand bargain that would definitively end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and suggests that major diplomatic breakthroughs are more likely to come from the region itself. The discussion acknowledges the challenges in Israeli politics and the limited support for a two-state solution among Israeli political leaders and the public. It also looks at the regional dynamics and the potential impact of normalization with Saudi Arabia.
Four months after Hamas’s October 7 attack, the war in Gaza continues with little reason to think that Israel is particularly close to achieving its declared goals. Meanwhile, the Middle East is on the precipice of a full-scale regional war—and it may be that that war has already begun.
Dahlia Scheindlin is a pollster, a policy fellow at Century International, and a columnist at Haaretz. She is the author of the new book, The Crooked Timber of Democracy in Israel. Dalia Dassa Kaye is a senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations and a Fulbright Schuman Visiting Scholar at Lund University.
We discuss the domestic political landscape inside Israel, the risks of further escalation in the region, and whether there is a better path forward.
