Big Picks, Props, and Predictions Heading Into Super Bowl LVIII | Extra Point Taken
Feb 8, 2024
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The hosts discuss their Super Bowl predictions, analyze the greatness of Patrick Mahomes, and the 49ers' luck with elite personnel. They share their favorite props, official predictions, and final picks. They also discuss the competitiveness of Mahomes and the discrepancies in run defenses. The hosts analyze the strengths and weaknesses of both teams before sharing their game predictions. They discuss Andy's innovative plays, the 49ers' strong run defense, and share their personal picks, props, and predictions for the Super Bowl.
57:44
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Quick takeaways
The Chiefs' offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, matches up well against the struggling 49ers' defense.
The 49ers' defense has struggled in the playoffs, particularly against quarterbacks like Jared Goff and Jordan Love, which makes me skeptical of their ability to contain Mahomes.
Noah Gray, the second tight end for the Chiefs, is expected to have over 10.5 receiving yards in the Super Bowl due to increased playing time and the Chiefs' tendency to involve him in the passing game.
Patrick Mahomes is predicted to have a higher completion percentage than Brock Purdy in the Super Bowl based on their career completion percentages and the defensive statistics of the Chiefs and 49ers.
Deep dives
Chiefs +2.5
I predict that the Kansas City Chiefs will cover the spread and win by at least 3 points in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs' offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, matches up well against the 49ers' defense, which has struggled in the playoffs. Additionally, Mahomes has performed well as an underdog in the past, and the Chiefs' tackling ability could help them contain the 49ers' yards after the catch. While I acknowledge that the 49ers have a strong offense and could potentially win the game, I believe the Chiefs will come out on top.
Chiefs 24, 49ers 23
I predict that the Kansas City Chiefs will win a close game against the San Francisco 49ers with a final score of 24-23. I expect the game to be back and forth with both teams putting up points, but I give the edge to the Chiefs due to their explosive offense led by Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid's coaching expertise. The 49ers' defense has struggled in the playoffs, particularly against quarterbacks like Jared Goff and Jordan Love, which makes me skeptical of their ability to contain Mahomes. I believe the Chiefs will pull off a late-game drive to secure a narrow victory.
Noah Gray to have over 10.5 receiving yards
I predict that Noah Gray, the second tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs, will have over 10.5 receiving yards in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have been utilizing more multi-tight end sets in the playoffs, and Gray's snap count has been increasing. They often involve him in play-action passing, which has been successful against strong playoff opponents. With just one reception, Gray can easily surpass the 10.5-yard mark. Given his increased playing time and the Chiefs' tendency to use him in the passing game, I believe Gray will achieve this milestone.
Patrick Mahomes to have a higher completion percentage than Brock Purdy
I predict that Patrick Mahomes will have a higher completion percentage than Brock Purdy in the Super Bowl. Mahomes has a career completion percentage of 67.3%, while Purdy's is 68.3%. However, the Chiefs' defense has allowed opponents to complete only 60.5% of their passes, while the 49ers' defense has allowed 65.5%. This indicates that Mahomes will have a better chance of completing a higher percentage of his passes against the 49ers' defense. Considering these factors, I believe Mahomes will outperform Purdy in terms of completion percentage.
Isaiah Pacheco to score a touchdown
I predict that Isaiah Pacheco will score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Pacheco is a running back for the San Francisco 49ers, and the Chiefs' defense has shown some vulnerabilities in the red zone recently. The 49ers excel at short yardage situations and have a strong rushing attack. Pacheco has been a reliable red zone option for the team, and I expect him to get opportunities to score. With the Chiefs' recent red zone struggles, I believe Pacheco has a good chance of finding the end zone.
Total first downs over 41.5
I predict that the total number of first downs in the Super Bowl will be over 41.5. Both the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers have potent offenses that can sustain drives and convert on third downs. The average number of first downs in an NFL game is around 40, and considering the offensive capabilities of both teams, I believe they will exceed this average. With their high-powered passing attacks and effective running games, I expect both teams to move the chains frequently and easily surpass the 41.5 mark.
Summary of Main Ideas
The podcast episode discusses the upcoming Super Bowl game between the Chiefs and the 49ers. The speaker predicts that the game will be characterized by long, methodical drives and a lack of explosive plays. They anticipate a high completion percentage for Patrick Mahomes and prioritize efficiency stats over explosive stats. The Chiefs' defense is noted as having the best defense against explosive pass plays, while the 49ers' defense ranks fourth in this category. Both defenses also prioritize preventing plays over the top. The speaker predicts a relatively close game, with a potential for someone streaking onto the field as a protest or act of disruption.
Key Point on Running Game
Another key point discussed in the podcast is the importance of the running game for both teams. The 49ers' run defense is considered weak, and the speaker predicts the Chiefs will aim to exploit this by running the ball effectively. Isaiah Pacheco is highlighted as a significant player in this regard, with his exceptional skills in running the ball. The speaker believes Pacheco's performance will be crucial to the Chiefs' success in keeping the 49ers' explosive offense off the field and maintaining methodical drives. The podcast also mentions the Chiefs' defense, which is known for its ability to stop the run and may employ strategies to counter the 49ers' rushing attack.
Sheil and Ben join forces on Radio Row at Super Bowl LVIII and start their conversation by analyzing the greatness of Patrick Mahomes and the 49ers’ incredible luck with elite personnel. They then dive into their favorite props, official predictions, final picks, and much more.
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Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak
Associate Producer: Chris Sutton
Video Production: Cory McConnell and Ronak Nair
Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins
