The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 373. Separating Risk From Noise in 2026: Digesting Major Policy Shifts, Distress Early Indicators, Major Office Transactions & Moves
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Jan 9, 2026 This week, the hosts dive into President Trump's proposal to limit institutional purchases of single-family homes and its potential market impact. They explore early warning signs of stress in commercial real estate before defaults, along with exciting major office moves like AT&T's relocation to Plano and Google's opening in Austin. The discussion also touches on the intriguing office-to-residential conversion at 5 Times Square, shedding light on evolving market dynamics and optimistic trends for deal-making in 2026.
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Three Layers That Separate Risk From Noise
- Watch three layers: price of money, availability of money, and loan/property early-warning signals.
Track Long Rates, Not Just Fed Cut Bets
- Monitor the Treasury curve, SOFR forward path, and long-end stickiness to assess refinancing pressure.
Use Credit Spreads As A Liquidity Canary
- Watch CMBS and CRE CLO spreads, bid lists, and lender behavior to detect real liquidity stress early.