Simplifying Complexity
The Mathematics of War: Part 1
Nov 27, 2023
The podcast explores the mathematical perspective of war and conflict, analyzing casualty numbers and patterns in wars. It discusses the feedback process of height and its potential impact on extreme heights. The concept of all wars being a collection of battles is challenged, highlighting the importance of understanding the underlying mechanism of casualties. The relationship between border length and wars is explored through the study of insurgencies and data collection within conflicts.
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Quick takeaways
- Large wars are scaled-up versions of smaller ones, revealing collective behavior and feedback mechanisms in conflicts.
- Power laws play a crucial role in understanding human conflict, challenging conventional notions of averages and predictions.
Deep dives
Understanding the Complexity of Human Conflict
Human conflict is a complex system with diverse reasons and terrains. While there is great diversity in why people fight and where wars take place, a complex systems view reveals common themes. Professor Neil Johnson explores human conflict in different eras, starting with the pre-internet era. He discusses Lewis Fry Richardson, a scientist who collected casualties data during World War I and uncovered patterns. Richardson found a power law distribution with a slope of 1.8, indicating that large wars are scaled-up versions of smaller ones. This power law reveals the collective behavior and feedback mechanisms that contribute to the unpredictability and fat-tailed nature of conflicts.
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