Ian Bremmer, a political scientist and founder of Eurasia Group, dives into the biggest global risks threatening 2025. He discusses the potential return of Donald Trump to power and its implications for U.S. foreign policy, the deepening rift between the U.S. and China, and the ongoing turmoil in Russia-Ukraine relations. Bremmer also highlights the urgent need for AI governance and offers a glimmer of hope with advancements in sustainable energy and transatlantic cooperation. It's a gripping exploration of today's most pressing geopolitical challenges.
The return of Donald Trump signifies a critical geopolitical risk for 2025, with potential consequences for domestic governance and international relations.
The emergence of a global leadership vacuum could lead to heightened regional conflicts and instability due to weakened international cooperation.
Deep dives
Global Leadership Vacuum (G0 Wins)
The primary risk identified for 2025 is a global leadership vacuum termed the G0 wins, which reflects a lack of effective global governance. The United States, the most powerful country, has shifted away from fostering collective security and promoting values such as democracy and free trade, instead taking a more transactional approach. This has resulted in weakened global cooperation, leaving nations vulnerable and more focused on self-preservation rather than proactive leadership. The implications of this vacuum manifest in various global issues, including regional conflicts and geopolitical instability, as countries struggle to navigate and respond effectively to emerging challenges.
The Unpredictability of Trump's Rule
The return of Donald Trump to power is framed as a significant risk due to his unpredictable nature and consolidated control over the Republican Party. Unlike his previous term, Trump now leads a loyal administration, raising concerns about the erosion of checks and balances, and potentially leading to the 'rule of man' rather than the rule of law. His return poses dangers not just domestically, but also internationally, as nations like the UK grapple with the implications of his approach to governance and foreign relations. The unpredictability he embodies affects global strategies, with allies unsure of how to engage or respond effectively.
Economic Risks of Trump’s Policies
The economic ramifications of Trump’s policies, dubbed Trumponomics, are projected to be more significant than anticipated, especially concerning tariffs and immigration. His administration's reliance on tariffs as a key policy tool could disrupt not just U.S.-China relations, but also affect trade with allied nations and overall economic stability. The emphasis on deporting undocumented immigrants threatens to increase labor costs and reduce the consumer base in the U.S., further slowing economic growth. These factors create a backdrop of uncertainty for the global economy, as businesses and markets are ill-prepared for the potential consequences of these policies.
Iran's Diminished Influence
Iran's position as a key player in the Middle East is seen as weakened due to a combination of external pressures and internal challenges. The landscape of regional alliances has shifted, with the Israeli military successes against Hezbollah and changing dynamics impacting Iran's ability to project power. Trump’s upcoming administration is likely to pursue a stringent approach towards Iran, potentially exacerbating their economic struggles and political instability. While Iran may not face complete collapse, its diminished regional influence and ongoing domestic issues suggest a tipping point could be approaching, raising risks of further confrontational policies.
2025 ushers in one of the most dangerous periods in world history — on par with the 1930s and early Cold War, says Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. Highlighting the top geopolitical risks for the year ahead, Bremmer explores the impact of Donald Trump’s return to power in the US, the breakdown of the US-China relationship, the consequences of a rogue Russia, the future of unchecked AI development and more, plus some bright spots amid these unprecedented challenges. (This interview, hosted by TED’s Helen Walters, was recorded on January 6, 2025.)