Is Nuclear Proliferation Inevitable? | Samo Burja

Jun 28, 2025

Samo Burja, an insightful analyst and founder of Bismarck Analysis, dives deep into the contentious world of nuclear proliferation. He presents the provocative argument of 'nuclear accelerationism,' suggesting that widespread nuclear capability is not just possible but inevitable. Burja discusses the tension between nuclear energy and weaponry, highlighting Japan's geopolitical motives and the implications for global security. He also navigates the complex relationship between energy sources and international relations, urging a reevaluation of energy policies toward a nuclear future.

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INSIGHT

Energy's Geopolitical Impact

Energy sources play a pivotal role in geopolitics, shaping power and conflicts throughout history.
Coal, oil, and gas each have distinct geographic and logistical impacts on global politics and warfare.

INSIGHT

Nuclear Energy and Weapons Link

Nuclear energy and weapons are deeply intertwined due to shared technical expertise and materials.
Scaling nuclear energy requires vastly increasing the number of reactors to achieve cost efficiency.

INSIGHT

Inevitable Nuclear Proliferation

Nuclear proliferation is inevitable as nuclear technology becomes easier to access globally.
Smaller countries with nuclear weapons can deter invasions, potentially stabilizing some conflicts.

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Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg talk with Samo Burja on nuclear weapons proliferation, energy geopolitics, and his "nuclear accelerationist" argument that widespread nuclear capability is inevitable, so countries should pursue abundant nuclear energy despite proliferation risks.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Core Argument: "Nuclear Accelerationism"

Nuclear weapons proliferation is inevitable - the 80-year-old technology is only getting easier
We're paying security costs without reaping energy benefits
Should accelerate civilian nuclear development to achieve energy abundance

North Korea precedent: Even poor, isolated countries can build nukes
Japan example: Already has tons of plutonium, could build weapons in <1 year
Proliferation ratchet: Countries rarely denuclearize once they acquire weapons
National security incentives overwhelm nonproliferation efforts

Nuclear club expansion: Countries with existing weapons should build thousands of reactors
Energy exports: Non-nuclear countries buy electricity from nuclear neighbors
Scale economics: Need massive reactor deployment for true cost advantages
Incentive structure: Subsidize alternatives for countries that forgo nuclear tech

Small arsenals (dozens of nukes) create different dynamics than superpower stockpiles (thousands)
Current "doomsday machine" logic only applies to US/Russia/China
Widespread small arsenals might actually reduce conventional war risk