Americano: Do Trump’s Republican rivals have any hope?
Jan 9, 2024
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James Johnson, pollster and co-founder of JL Partners, joins Freddy Gray to discuss the upcoming Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire primary, and whether Trump's rivals have a chance. They also talk about the impact of Trump's trials and the viral word cloud used by both Biden and Trump to their advantage.
Donald Trump is expected to have a significant lead in the upcoming Iowa caucuses, potentially coming in second or third behind Nikki Haley.
Polling in Iowa is challenging due to the unique caucus system, making it difficult to accurately predict voter preferences.
Deep dives
Iowa Caucuses and Trump's Lead
The latest polling in Iowa shows Donald Trump with a significant lead, ahead by about 30 points on average. Despite the effort put into Iowa by Rhonda Santis, it is expected that he will fall short and come second, possibly even third behind Nikki Haley. However, there is not much interest in Iowa, with many viewing it as a foregone conclusion due to Trump's large lead. While DeSantis may over-perform his polling, Trump is still expected to have the advantage going into New Hampshire.
The Challenges of Polling in Iowa
Iowa's unique caucus system makes it difficult to accurately poll voter preferences. People physically gather at community centers and stand in the corner of the candidate they support, with some even moving to other centers if there are not enough supporters gathered. These intricacies and unpredictable elements make polling in Iowa challenging. Due to this unpredictability and complexity, many pollsters, including the speaker's, have chosen not to poll in Iowa this time around.
Importance of Iowa and New Hampshire
Iowa serves as a momentum-building state going into the New Hampshire primary. The results in Iowa help weed out candidates at the bottom of the pack and shape the narrative leading into the subsequent primaries. However, the real impact is seen in New Hampshire, a more competitive primary. Nikki Haley is aiming for a strong showing in Iowa to gain momentum and close the gap on Donald Trump in New Hampshire. With the opportunity for independent voters to participate, Haley's strategy involves targeting these voters as well.
Freddy Gray is joined by pollster James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners. They speak about the upcoming Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire primary, and whether Trump’s opponents have any chance of beating him. They also discuss the impact of Trump’s trials, and JL Partners’ viral word cloud which both Biden and Trump have been attempting to use to their advantage. (Photo credit: JL Partners)