Breaking Beijing: Military Competition with Tony Stark
Apr 15, 2025
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Tony Stark, author of Breaking Beijing and Ex Supra, brings sharp insights into the U.S.-China rivalry. He discusses America's military readiness and the balance between short-term tactics and long-term strategies. Stark argues that investments in education and science are crucial for maintaining competitiveness. The conversation also touches on Taiwan's role in global nonproliferation and the transformative potential of AI in warfare, cautioning against over-relying on new technologies as 'wonder weapons.' This dialogue is a thought-provoking look at modern geopolitical challenges.
The U.S. must create an environment that challenges the Chinese Communist Party's global ambitions while maintaining democratic stability and safety for Americans.
Immediate investments in military readiness and educational initiatives are essential for countering China's threats and producing informed future leaders.
Technological advancements will shape warfare, but human adaptability and traditional strategies will remain vital in military operations against adversaries.
Deep dives
The Endgame for U.S.-China Relations
The main objective for U.S.-China relations should be making the world a precarious place for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) while ensuring safety and stability for Americans and upholding a democratic framework. This notion stresses that efforts should not focus on removing the CCP from power or establishing regional dominance between democratic and authoritarian regimes, as such strategies could yield counterproductive outcomes. It is essential to create an environment where the CCP feels threatened in pursuing its global objectives, rather than allowing it to expand its influence unchecked. Understanding this endgame helps inform more effective and practical strategies for American policymakers.
Decadal Framework for U.S.-China Conflict
A decadal horizon framework suggests a specific timeline for prioritizing U.S. investments and strategies in light of the ongoing conflict with China. The immediate threat spans from 2025 to 2030, prompting decisions about military readiness and resource allocation that must be made now to ensure operational effectiveness in the near term. Investments should focus on practical production capabilities and fostering partnerships throughout Southeast Asia to bolster regional security and deterrence in potential conflict zones, particularly Taiwan. Looking further ahead to 2030-2040, long-term goals include developing advanced technologies and military doctrines that prepare the U.S. for a more capable adversary in the future.
Balancing Short-Term and Long-Term Strategies
To avoid catastrophic outcomes over the coming decades, a dual-focus approach must be adopted, emphasizing both immediate defensive actions and longer-term capabilities. This requires careful planning around current threats, such as potential aggressions in 2027, while simultaneously investing wisely in future military readiness. Critical investments, particularly in munitions production, are necessary to meet the demand for resources in high-intensity warfare scenarios, as demonstrated by the conflict in Ukraine. The long-term competitive posture hinges on balancing these immediate needs against a strategic vision that prepares the U.S. for future confrontations.
The Importance of Education and Awareness
Educational initiatives are vital for fostering a well-informed and capable populace, which plays a crucial role in national security and policy formulation. The discussion highlights the challenges posed by varying literacy levels among military recruits, which can impact decision-making and operational effectiveness on the battlefield. An educated citizenry not only enhances individual potential but also contributes to collective knowledge and understanding of complex geopolitical issues, thus informing public policy. This underscores the need for a robust educational foundation from K-12 and beyond to cultivate future leaders who are prepared to address national and global challenges.
Emerging Technologies and Warfare Dynamics
The future of warfare will be significantly influenced by the evolution of combat technologies, yet human elements will remain integral to military success. Lessons learned from conflicts, particularly in Ukraine, underscore the necessity of balancing advanced technological capabilities with traditional military strategies. As military operations incorporate unmanned systems and artificial intelligence, understanding their limitations and the interplay between manned and unmanned combat becomes critical for effective strategy. This ongoing evolution emphasizes that while technology can enhance warfare capabilities, the complexities of human decision-making and adaptability will continue to shape the battlefield.
Does America still have what it takes to stand up to China? Does short-term military readiness trade off with long-term strategy? What does the US need to do today to stay competitive for the rest of the century?
“Tony Stark” is the author of Breaking Beijing, a Substack examining the military dimensions of US-China competition. Tony’s Substack goes deep on subjects you didn’t know you needed to understand, like Arctic policy, and takes a refreshing step back to look at great power competition holistically. Tony is also the author of Ex Supra, a sci-fi thriller about a near-future US-China war.
Today, we discuss…
What it will take to win the 21st century, and what America needs to prioritize in the short, medium, and long term,
Why investing in education, basic science research, and foreign aid pay dividends in military readiness,
Why Washington is short on coherent China strategy,
Taiwan’s impact on global nonproliferation efforts,
How AI could change warfare, even if AGI can’t be considered a “wonder weapon.”
