Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: Don't look down
Feb 7, 2025
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss the resilience of global expansion, buoyed by robust manufacturing growth despite looming uncertainties from U.S. trade policies. They delve into the mixed signals in January's labor market reports and assess risks in capital expenditures. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico could reshape consumer sentiment, as the duo navigates the balancing act of economic growth and rising budget deficits. This insightful conversation uncovers the intricate interplay between fiscal challenges and the paths to sustainable economic health.
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Global Economy Remains Solid
- The global economy shows signs of solidity, aligning with JPMorgan's macro views.
- January's PMI and US payroll data, while slightly down, suggest continued economic strength.
Asian Tech Dominance and Global Signals
- The strength in Asian industry, particularly in tech, might not be as indicative of broader global trends as it once was.
- Non-tech sectors in Asia show less growth, impacting its role as an economic bellwether.
Capital Expenditures Weakness
- While consumer spending appears strong, weakening capital expenditures pose a concern.
- Monthly data within the CapEx Nowcaster indicate this weakness despite recent strong quarters.