Ellie Sacklet-Vala, Head of non-ferrous metal pricing at Argus Media, dives into the contentious topic of rare earth minerals in Ukraine. She unpacks the myth that there’s $500 billion worth waiting to be accessed, revealing the complexities of extraction. The discussion highlights Ukraine's mineral wealth beyond just rare earths and the geopolitical implications tied to these resources. Listeners gain insight into the feasibility of claims surrounding these deposits and the critical challenges faced in harnessing their potential.
The claim of $500 billion in rare earths in Ukraine is likely inflated and stems from outdated Soviet-era mapping techniques.
Ukraine possesses an impressive array of mineral resources, but the extraction challenges and necessary infrastructure investments remain significant hurdles.
Deep dives
Understanding Rare Earths
Rare earth elements, which include 17 specific minerals, are often misunderstood regarding their availability. Contrary to their name, they are abundant in the Earth's crust, making them not particularly rare in a geological sense. However, the difficulty lies in the extraction and processing of these elements, which are complex and resource-intensive processes. This challenge has led to a heavy reliance on China for their supply, resulting in significant geopolitical implications for countries seeking to diversify their sources.
The $500 Billion Question
The recent claim regarding the U.S. interest in $500 billion worth of Ukraine's rare earth resources raises questions about the validity of such a figure. Experts suggest that this number does not correspond to the actual estimated value of rare earths, which is significantly lower on a global scale. The estimation relies on outdated mapping from the Soviet era, and the potential resources in Ukraine must be thoroughly reassessed to determine their actual value. The inflated figure may be reflecting a broader range of valuable minerals rather than strictly rare earths.
Potential Wealth in Ukraine
Ukraine is believed to have vast mineral resources, with some estimates valuing these resources as high as $15 trillion. This figure encompasses various critical minerals needed for traditional industries and the green energy transition, such as lithium and titanium. While the theoretical value of these resources appears high, the logistics and costs associated with extracting and processing them present significant challenges. Without proper infrastructure and investment, realizing this wealth will remain a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty.
As part of the fast-moving argument over US military support to Ukraine, the US demanded $500bn worth of access to what was variously reported as Ukraine’s rare earths or rare metals or rare minerals. But is there that amount of minerals in the ground?
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer and Editor: Richard Vadon
Studio Manager: James Beard
Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
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