

Peak China with Noah Smith and Matt Klein
13 snips Sep 22, 2023
Noah Smith, a Substacker known for his sharp insights on economics, and Matt Klein, a contributor providing economic analysis of China, delve into the complexities of China's economy. They discuss the concept of 'Peak China' and draw fascinating parallels with Japan's economic history. The conversation touches on China's advancements in semiconductors and electric vehicles, the implications for global competition, and potential shifts in US-China relations under a new administration. Their engaging dialogue also includes a humorous detour into music's reflection on China's future.
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China's Economic Slowdown
- China's economy has been slowing down since 2010, from double-digit growth to around 6-7%.
- COVID zero policies further disrupted this trend, and the expected rebound after lifting restrictions hasn't materialized.
China's Economic Model
- China prefers state-directed spending over consumer-led growth, hindering its economy.
- This approach, combined with structural issues, limits consumer spending and fuels the real estate bubble.
China's Service Sector Opportunity
- Shifting towards service industries could boost China's productivity.
- Unlike developed nations, China's service sector is underdeveloped, offering significant growth potential.