Monetary Matters with Jack Farley “Going Full Reagan” | Tian Yang on Trump Administration’s Bet To Shrink U.S. Trade Deficit, Signs of Market Panic, and Dollar Outlook
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Apr 8, 2025 
Tian Yang, CEO and head of research at Variant Perception, dives into pressing economic issues like tariffs and their impact on the U.S.-China trade relationship. He discusses the Trump administration's strategies to cut the trade deficit and their implications for the dollar and inflation. Yang also highlights tactics for navigating market volatility and explains the Log Periodic Power Law to identify market bubbles. Finally, he emphasizes the evolving economic landscape and urges adaptive investment strategies to thrive amid uncertainty.
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Market Panic Signals
- Simultaneous crashes in S&P and gold are rare, similar to COVID or post-Lehman.
- This market behavior suggests a need for emergency policy easing.
Trump's Reagan Strategy
- Trump's economic strategy resembles Reagan's, potentially inducing a recession to control inflation.
- This approach is comparable to policy-induced recessions like COVID lockdowns or Volcker's actions.
Trade Deficit Focus
- The US aims to shrink its trade deficit, impacting inflows into US assets and the dollar's global role.
- This aggressive approach may weaken the dollar and support real assets like gold.
