Are We in a Recession? What the Data Says—and How to Protect Your Finances

14 snips

May 8, 2025

In this discussion, economist Elizabeth Renter from NerdWallet delves into the implications of a shrinking GDP and the potential signs of a recession. She, alongside health insurance expert Kate Ashford, provides keen insights on effectively managing Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), especially during employer contribution changes. They tackle crucial aspects like HSA rollovers, tax implications, and common pitfalls. Additionally, the conversation touches on the effects of inflation and tariffs on consumer behavior, painting a vivid picture of today's economic landscape.

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INSIGHT

GDP Contraction Misleading Indicator

The U.S. economy shrank slightly in Q1 2025 mainly due to pre-tariff import surges, not broad economic decline.
GDP contraction figures may be misleading because they don't count imported goods as production.

INSIGHT

Labor Market Normalizing Post-Pandemic

The U.S. labor market is currently healthy but shows signs of slowing with fewer job openings and moderate unemployment.
The Federal Reserve's rate hikes have helped balance hiring demand and supply, easing inflation pressure.

INSIGHT

Inflation Near Fed Target, Tariffs Loom

Inflation has slowed substantially since 2022 but remains just above the Fed's 2% target.
April 2025 data may show rising prices due to tariffs implemented after March's inflation report.

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Learn what a shrinking GDP means for you. Plus: how to handle your HSA if your employer stops contributing.

Is the U.S. in a recession? How do you roll over an HSA when your employer stops contributing? Hosts Sean Pyles and Elizabeth Ayoola discuss the current state of the economy and how to manage your Health Savings Account (HSA) to help you protect your finances. Joined by NerdWallet news writer Anna Helhoski and economist Elizabeth Renter, they begin with a discussion of economic indicators, offering insights into why the GDP shrank in Q1, how tariffs and inflation are affecting consumer behavior, and what signs might point to a looming recession.

Then, NerdWallet health insurance expert Kate Ashford joins Sean and Elizabeth to discuss HSA rollovers. They discuss when it makes sense to move your HSA to a new provider, the tax implications of selling HSA investments, and how to avoid penalties during a rollover. Whether you’re consolidating accounts or reevaluating where to keep your medical savings, this segment breaks down your options and highlights key deadlines and common pitfalls to watch out for.

Learn more about how (and why) to invest with your HSA: https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/how-to-invest-hsa

In their conversation, the Nerds discuss: recession 2025, are we in a recession, GDP contraction, health savings account rollover, HSA rollover rules, economic indicators 2025, consumer sentiment index, inflation 2025, core PCE inflation, high deductible health plan, HSA transfer process, in-kind HSA transfer, trustee-to-trustee HSA rollover, capital gains taxes HSA, how to avoid HSA penalties, HSA 60 day rule, HSA rollover timeline, federal tariffs and economy, HSA investment options, HSA fees comparison, emergency fund strategy, when to move an HSA, economic impact of tariffs, HSA cash vs investment transfer, consumer confidence 2025, saving during economic uncertainty, signs of recession, HSA matching contributions ended, managing money in downturn, and investing HSA funds.

To send the Nerds your money questions, call or text the Nerd hotline at 901-730-6373 or email podcast@nerdwallet.com.

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