Lawfare Daily: Michael Beckley and Arne Westad on the U.S.-China Relationship
Jul 18, 2024
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Professors Michael Beckley and Arne Westad discuss U.S.-China relations focusing on security competition, avoiding conflict, and deterring Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. They explore historical parallels and the importance of strategic communication to prevent large-scale conflict.
Maintaining strategic communication is crucial to avoid conflict escalation between the U.S. and China.
Balancing security competition with China and economic relations is a key challenge for the U.S.
Engaging in dialogue and confidence-building measures is essential to prevent misunderstandings in U.S.-China relations.
Deep dives
US-China Relationship and Taiwan Issue
The podcast discusses the current US-China relationship and the potential conflict over Taiwan. The American president has stated that the US will respond militarily if China attacks Taiwan, highlighting the complex dynamics in the region. There is a focus on the coordination and competition between the two countries, with insights into maintaining deterrence and avoiding military escalation. The discussion includes viewpoints on engaging China, managing red lines, and the implications of historical parallels like pre-World War I tensions.
Economic Interdependence and Conflict Potential
The concept of interdependence fueling conflict is explored, pointing out how reliance on adversaries for critical resources can lead to mutual vulnerability. The discussion delves into how economic competition between the US and China can impact security dynamics, with insights on the stability-instability paradox in deterrence strategies. There are references to historical examples and scholarly perspectives on how economic ties can influence geopolitical tensions.
Maintaining Communication and Tension Management
The importance of communication and confidence-building measures in US-China relations is highlighted, emphasizing the significance of managing tensions and preventing misunderstandings. The podcast reflects on the challenges of balancing cooperation efforts with national interests and red lines. Perspectives on the need for dialogue to buy time, mitigate conflict, and address differing strategic priorities between the two powers are shared.
Strategic Security Concerns and Geopolitical Realities
The podcast delves into strategic security concerns and the geopolitical realities shaping US-China relations. Discussions on handling Taiwan, military deterrence, and redrawing maps in East Asia provide insights into the delicate balance of power dynamics. The conversation includes assessments of China's ambitions, US responses, and the potential for conflict escalation linked to historical parallels and power shifts.
Complexity of US-China Relations and Future Scenarios
The complexity of US-China relations is analyzed, encompassing the nuances of engagement, competition, and conflict avoidance. Insights are shared on navigating red lines, managing bilateral tensions, and addressing long-term geopolitical challenges. The podcast touches upon scenarios of cooperation, containment, and the evolving strategic landscape in US-China relations, considering ongoing dialogue, regional dynamics, and the prospects for peace and stability.
Ethical responsibilities in managing international relations
The episode emphasizes the ethical considerations and responsibilities in managing international relations, especially in delicate situations like the US-China dynamic. The importance of transparency, dialogue, and strategic communication in averting potential conflicts is highlighted. The discussion underscores the need for nuanced approaches to navigate geopolitical challenges, engage in conflict prevention, and uphold diplomatic principles for peace and stability.
On today’s episode, Matt Gluck, Research Fellow at Lawfare, spoke with Michael Beckley, Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts, and Arne Westad, the Elihu Professor of History at Yale.
They discussed Beckley’s and Westad’s articles in Foreign Affairs on the best path forward for the U.S.-China strategic relationship—in the economic and military contexts. Beckley argues that in the short term, the U.S. should focus on winning its security competition with China, rather than significant engagement, to prevent conflict. Westad compares the current moment to the period preceding World War I. He cautions that the U.S. and China should maintain strategic communication and avoid an overly narrow focus on competition to stave off large-scale conflict.
They broke down the authors’ arguments and where they agree and disagree. Does U.S. engagement lower the temperature in the relationship? Will entrenched economic interests move the countries closer to conflict? How can the U.S. credibly deter China from invading Taiwan without provoking Beijing?