
The Rachman Review Taiwan under threat: how strong are its defences?
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Oct 16, 2025 J. Michael Cole, a Taipei-based policy analyst and author of The Taiwan Tinderbox, delves into the looming threat of invasion from China. He discusses the resilience of the Taiwanese people in the face of coercion and the complexities of psychological warfare. Cole highlights China's military advancements and the significant costs of a potential amphibious invasion. He also examines Taiwan's defense strategies, the economic implications of its semiconductor dominance, and the potential consequences of U.S. policy uncertainty on Taiwan's security.
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Taiwanese Resilience Under Coercion
- Taiwanese society remains pragmatic and carries on despite daily Chinese coercion.
- Psychological warfare fails because Taiwanese refuse to be coerced into accommodation.
Bigger Arsenal, Not Yet Battle-Proven
- China modernised its military capacity rapidly with missiles, landing craft and indigenous production.
- But training, command flexibility and combat experience remain important gaps in PLA readiness.
Asymmetric Defense Over Conventional Parity
- Taiwan shifted to an asymmetric deterrence strategy rather than trying to prevail outright.
- The goal is to impose such high costs on China that Beijing will be deterred from invading.

