Financial Times says Fed is Central - We Disagree [Eurodollar University, Ep. 186]

Feb 12, 2022

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Journalists Kate Duguid and Eric Platt explain that US government bond markets believe the Federal Reserve will be able to tame inflation. Actually bond markets believe the Fed doesn't know what it's doing AND they believe consumer prices increases are not caused by the Fed.

------EP. 186 TOPICS------
00:00 INTRO: The Financial Times says the Federal Reserve will control inflation; Jeff reacts.
01:25 The Federal Reserve will use the labor market data to support rate hikes.
04:24 Are market based inflation expectations for sub-three percent inflation in five years?
06:42 Does the bond market believe the Fed will be able to tame inflation?
10:41 Real rates are "sharply higher" says the FT; relative to the lowest ever says Jeff.
13:24 The FT works backwards to explain the market's behavior to keep the Fed central.
14:54 US employment figures for Nov-Dec '21 and Jan '22 received massive seasonal adjustments.
18:15 OUTRO: The bond market does not believe too much money has caused price increases.

----EP. 186 REFERENCES----
Bond market signals room for Fed to raise rates without stalling economy: https://on.ft.com/366WEXR
More Questions Than Clarity On Labor Inflation Pressure As FOMC Seeks Justification For Taper/Rate Hikes: https://bit.ly/3oHiWpr
In Advance of Payroll Friday, ADP Payrolls Go Cold: https://bit.ly/3uHxclV
Payrolls and Population, What A Mess: https://bit.ly/3GIKlxx
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

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---------THE TEAM---------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is CABO by Superintendent McCupcakes from Epidemic Sound.

------FIND THE TEAM-------
Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Jeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/

Emil: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Emil: https://www.EuroDollarEnterprises.com

David: https://DavidParkins.com/
Terence: https://www.VisualFocusMedia.com