Paddy Walker and Peter Roberts, "War's Changed Landscape?: A Primer on Conflict's Forms and Norms" (Howgate, 2023)
Jan 27, 2024
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Military pundit Paddy Walker and military analyst Peter Roberts discuss the paradoxical continuities in warfare despite technological advancements. They emphasize the slow evolution of norms and the exaggerated role of technology in war. The podcast explores topics like changing norms and forms of warfare, the importance of context and history, hybrid warfare, and the need for human oversight in military operations.
Norms in warfare are subject to slow evolution and are influenced by context and history.
Hybrid warfare, although overused, remains an important consideration in conflict.
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have reshaped the character of war and bring new challenges for defense strategies.
Deep dives
Understanding Norms and Forms in Warfare
Norms in warfare refer to patterns of behavior that govern the conduct of actors, while forms pertain to how parties fight and the means employed in battle. Enduring norms are long-standing and relatively stable, while emerging norms are influenced by recent advances and are still in flux. New norms represent significant and cemented changes in behavior. The study of norms faces challenges such as presentism and the disconnect between theory and practice on the ground. Additionally, context and history play crucial roles in understanding norms. Norms in warfare are not easily defined and are subject to slow evolution. Technology, while important, faces practical challenges in integration and the reliance on well-trained soldiers remains essential.
The Complexity of Hybrid Warfare
Hybrid warfare, which gained attention following the seizure of Crimea, refers to the use of a broad range of means in conflict, such as cyber operations, misinformation campaigns, sanctions, and pandemics. The concept of hybrid warfare has been overused, leading to difficulties in defining its boundaries. Political ambiguity and plausible deniability can distort decision-making and delay policy responses. Technology is often perceived as a solution, but its integration into legacy forces can be complex and incremental. Hybrid warfare remains an important consideration in conflict, but the focus has shifted back to the significance of conventional warfare and the challenges of emerging technologies.
Impacts of UAVs and Recent Developments in Battle Space Operations
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have had a significant impact on contemporary warfare. With their ubiquitous surveillance capabilities, UAVs have played a role in conflicts in Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. While UAVs offer advantages such as lower cost and quicker engagement cycles, they also face limitations in terms of range, fragility, vulnerability to defense systems, and supply constraints. As the development of UAVs continues, they are expected to reshape the character of war and inform future norms. Other recent developments in battle space operations include changes in artillery replication, swarm strategies, and disruptions in naval operations. These developments bring new challenges and implications for defense strategies.
The Impact of Data and Information Technology on Warfare Norms
The podcast episode discusses the increasing importance of data and information technology in shaping warfare norms. With the widespread availability of the internet and mobile technology, news and information are instantly accessible, creating a new ecosystem for war and conflict. However, the reliability and veracity of data and information are often questionable, leading to an erosion of official narratives. Engagement in war is no longer limited to combatants, as individuals become digital contributors, curating and disseminating information in a war zone. This blurs the line between combatants and non-combatants, challenging traditional distinctions and legal frameworks governing warfare.
Ukraine's Impact on Warfare Norms and Political Legitimacy
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has challenged conventional understandings of warfare and political legitimacy. The protracted nature of the conflict demonstrates the resilience of certain norms and the changing dynamics of warfare. Traditional distinctions between lethal and non-lethal warfare are blurred, expanding the definition of war and shifting battles beyond traditional battlefields. The use of third parties and the exploitation of weaknesses amplify the importance of resilience, regeneration, and infrastructure. The conflict also highlights the difficulty of signaling intention and the increased potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation among actors. Overall, Ukraine has reshaped perceptions of warfare norms and political legitimacy.
Throughout much of the 21st century thus far, the common argument among military pundits was that war has or will soon be radically changed in manners that exist beyond imagination. The main catalyst for such extraordinary changes would be new advancements in technology and weaponry. With the on-going war in Ukraine, one fundamental surprise that has stunned many military analysts is that in spite of major technological advancements such as drones and open-source intelligence (OSINT) via social media, the main character of the conflict seems more akin to World War I (1914-1918) style trench warfare. What can explain this perplexing paradox?
Peter Roberts and Paddy Walker explain in their co-authored book War's Changed Landscape?: A Primer on Conflict's Forms and Norms(Howgate Publishing Limited, 2023) that all change in war is often outweighed by continuity in military history. Even when change does occur, it is often a slow evolution of norms rather than a sudden rupture. The role of technology in such is often grossly exaggerated in the popular media.
Peter Roberts is a Senior Associate Fellow for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), having been Director of Military Sciences there between January 2014 and November 2021.
Paddy Walker is Managing Director of the Leon Group, a senior research Fellow in Modern War Studies at The University of Buckingham, an Associate Fellow at RUSI and previously London chair of NGO Human Rights Watch.
Stephen Satkiewicz is an independent scholar whose research areas are related to Civilizational Analysis, Social Complexity, Big History, Historical Sociology, military history, War studies, International Relations, Geopolitics, as well as Russian and East European history.