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Eurodollar University

T BILL Carnage Begin: The First Sign of Financial Collapse

Dec 8, 2024
This week sees a shocking surge in interest for the eight-week Treasury bill, raising eyebrows across financial markets. Labor statistics tell a troubling story of rising unemployment amid economic optimism. Collateral shortages intensify concerns about a potential financial collapse. The dynamics of Treasury bill auctions reveal intriguing patterns that hint at recession risks. As market expectations shift, the complexities of term SOFR and implications for Federal Reserve policies come into sharp focus.
20:46

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Quick takeaways

  • The unprecedented demand for eight-week Treasury bills showcases significant concern among investors regarding the economic outlook and potential recession risks.
  • Rising unemployment rates and job losses reveal troubling trends in the labor market that contrast sharply with optimistic economic claims, indicating persistent weaknesses.

Deep dives

Unprecedented Demand for Treasury Bills

The recent surge in bidding for eight-week Treasury bills indicates an unusual and extraordinary demand in the financial market. This bid reached a record level, reflecting an intriguing pattern that has become evident since early August, where significant bidding activity has aligned with impending payroll reports. The eight-week bills experienced a notable rise in bids to nearly $280 billion, despite a reduction in the amount offered by the Treasury, demonstrating a strong preference among investors for these instruments. Ultimately, this indicates a pervasive sentiment that suggests larger concerns about the economic outlook, particularly among major financial players.

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