AI Will Kill Us All — Liron Shapira on The Flares

Dec 27, 2024

In this thought-provoking discussion, Liron Shapira, a prominent AI risk advocate, engages with Gaëtan Selle about the existential threats posed by artificial intelligence. They dissect the crossroads of effective altruism and transhumanism while pondering the chilling notion of a potential AI apocalypse. Delving into Bayesian epistemology, Shapira examines how uncertainty shapes our understanding of AI risks. The conversation takes a fascinating turn as they explore cryonics, simulation theories, and the quest for alignment between AI and human values.

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ANECDOTE

Early AI Risk Interest

Liron Shapira became interested in AI risk in 2007 after discovering Less Wrong and the MIRI community.
He became a fan of Eliezer Yudkowsky and the potential dangers of uncontrolled AI.

insights

INSIGHT

General Intelligence Factor

There's a common factor in general intelligence, applicable to both humans and AIs.
A higher "G" likely leads to better performance in diverse domains like chess and jujitsu.

insights

INSIGHT

Core Argument for AI Doom

Uncontrolled AI poses an existential risk because we cannot control its desires.
AI will achieve whatever it wants, regardless of humanity's needs.

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Exploring Effective Altruism in the Context of AI Risk

01:41 • 2min

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Exploring Transhumanism: Beyond the Human Condition

03:31 • 2min

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Navigating Uncertainty: Bayesian Insights on Existential Threats

05:16 • 4min

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Navigating the Intelligence Paradox in AI

09:26 • 17min

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The Doom Train: AI's Existential Threats

26:50 • 27min

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Navigating Narrow AI: Opportunities and Risks

54:08 • 15min

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Cryonics, Utopia, and Simulation Theory

01:09:18 • 12min

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Building Podcast Engagement through Strategy

01:21:42 • 2min

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The Language Instinct

How the Mind Creates Language

Steven Pinker

In this book, Steven Pinker argues that language is an innate human ability, produced by evolution to solve the problem of communication among social hunter-gatherers. He explains how language works, how children learn it, how it changes, and how the brain computes it. Pinker refutes common ideas such as the Sapir–Whorf hypothesis and the notion that language is a human invention. He supports his argument with examples from linguistics, psychology, and popular culture, emphasizing that language is a specialized 'mental module' rather than a mark of advanced intelligence. The book also includes updates on advances in the science of language since its initial publication.

The Fabric of Reality

The Science of Parallel Universes--and Its Implications

David Deutsch

In 'The Fabric of Reality', David Deutsch explores a four-strand theory of everything, integrating Hugh Everett's many-worlds interpretation of quantum physics, Karl Popper's epistemology, Alan Turing's theory of computation, and Richard Dawkins's evolutionary theory. The book discusses the implications of these theories, including the concept of the multiverse, quantum computers, time travel, and the ultimate fate of the universe. Deutsch argues that these theories, when taken literally and jointly, reveal a unified, objective, and comprehensible fabric of reality.

How the Mind Works

Steven Pinker

In this book, Steven Pinker delves into the workings of the human mind, addressing questions such as why we are rational yet often irrational, how we perceive the world, and the origins of emotions, social interactions, and higher cognitive functions. Pinker synthesizes insights from cognitive science, evolutionary biology, and other fields to explain how the mind evolved to solve the problems faced by our ancestors. He discusses topics like vision, emotion, social behavior, and the mysteries of consciousness, arguing for a computational theory of mind and an adaptationist approach to evolution.

Superintelligence

Paths, Dangers, Strategies

Nick Bostrom

In this book, Nick Bostrom delves into the implications of creating superintelligence, which could surpass human intelligence in all domains. He discusses the potential dangers, such as the loss of human control over such powerful entities, and presents various strategies to ensure that superintelligences align with human values. The book examines the 'AI control problem' and the need to endow future machine intelligence with positive values to prevent existential risks.

The Beginning of Infinity

Explanations That Transform the World

David Deutsch

In this groundbreaking book, David Deutsch argues that explanations have a fundamental place in the universe and that improving them is the basic regulating principle of all successful human endeavor. The book takes readers on a journey through various fields of science, history of civilization, art, moral values, and the theory of political institutions. Deutsch explains how we form new explanations and drop bad ones, and discusses the conditions under which progress, which he argues is potentially boundless, can and cannot happen. He emphasizes the importance of good explanations, which he defines as those that are 'hard to vary' and have 'reach', and argues that these explanations are central to the Enlightenment way of thinking and to all scientific and philosophical progress.

Quantum Computing Since Democritus

Scott Aaronson

Written by Scott Aaronson, this book takes readers on a tour through some of the deepest ideas in mathematics, computer science, and physics. It covers topics ranging from antiquity with Democritus to modern quantum computing, including logic, set theory, computability, complexity theory, cryptography, and the interpretation of quantum mechanics. The book also discusses philosophical perspectives and includes extended discussions on time travel, Newcomb's Paradox, and the anthropic principle. Aaronson's informal style makes the book accessible to readers with scientific backgrounds and those working in physics, computer science, mathematics, and philosophy.

Our Mathematical Universe

My Quest for the Ultimate Nature of Reality

Max Tegmark

In this book, Max Tegmark presents his mathematical universe hypothesis, which posits that reality is not just described by mathematics but is actually a mathematical structure. The book is divided into three parts: 'Zooming Out' explores our location in the cosmos and multiverse, 'Zooming In' delves into quantum mechanics and particle physics, and 'Stepping Back' discusses Tegmark's speculative ideas about the mathematical nature of reality. Tegmark introduces four levels of multiverse, culminating in the 'Level IV multiverse,' where all possible mathematical structures have physical existence. The book is written in an accessible and engaging style, using anecdotes and clear explanations to make complex scientific concepts understandable to a broad audience.

The Day You Discard Your Body

Marshall Brain

Grabby Aliens

Robin Hanson

This week Liron was interview by Gaëtan Selle on @the-flares about AI doom.

Cross-posted from their channel with permission.

Original source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4Qi-54I9Zw

0:00:02 Guest Introduction

0:01:41 Effective Altruism and Transhumanism

0:05:38 Bayesian Epistemology and Extinction Probability

0:09:26 Defining Intelligence and Its Dangers

0:12:33 The Key Argument for AI Apocalypse

0:18:51 AI’s Internal Alignment

0:24:56 What Will AI's Real Goal Be?

0:26:50 The Train of Apocalypse

0:31:05 Among Intellectuals, Who Rejects the AI Apocalypse Arguments?

0:38:32 The Shoggoth Meme

0:41:26 Possible Scenarios Leading to Extinction

0:50:01 The Only Solution: A Pause in AI Research?

0:59:15 The Risk of Violence from AI Risk Fundamentalists

1:01:18 What Will General AI Look Like?

1:05:43 Sci-Fi Works About AI

1:09:21 The Rationale Behind Cryonics

1:12:55 What Does a Positive Future Look Like?

1:15:52 Are We Living in a Simulation?

1:18:11 Many Worlds in Quantum Mechanics Interpretation

1:20:25 Ideal Future Podcast Guest for Doom Debates

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates. Thanks for watching.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit lironshapira.substack.com

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