TPI Replay: China’s Nuclear Forces, With Fiona S. Cunningham
Aug 29, 2023
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Fiona S. Cunningham, an assistant professor of political science, discusses China's nuclear program, including its modernization efforts and development of hypersonic weapons. The podcast also explores China's reluctance in strategic stability talks with the US and the possibility of an arms race in nuclear capabilities between the two countries.
China has been modernizing and expanding its nuclear weapons program, with a goal of having around 1,000 warheads by 2030.
China's nuclear modernization may be driven by factors such as perceived US threats, internal dynamics, and the potential risk of conflict over Taiwan.
Deep dives
China's Nuclear Buildup
China's nuclear forces have been building up at a slower pace compared to its other military forces. However, around 2018-2019, US intelligence officials sounded the alarm about changes in China's nuclear forces. These changes include an increase in the size, accuracy, diversity, and readiness of China's nuclear arsenal. Previously, China's nuclear forces had been sitting at around 200 warheads, while the United States and Russia have over 1,500 strategic deployed nuclear warheads. China has been transitioning from liquid-fueled to solid-fueled missiles, enhancing their readiness. China's modernization efforts aim to have around 1,000 warheads by 2030. Increased accuracy provides China with the capability for limited nuclear strikes. However, China's policy has historically been centered on a no-first-use approach and a commitment to counterattack rather than engage in first strikes.
Implications of China's Nuclear Modernization
China's nuclear modernization and buildup might be driven by several factors. It could be a response to the perceived threat of US capabilities, including missile defense systems and advanced conventional strike capabilities. Changes in leadership beliefs and internal organizational dynamics within China could also influence decisions on nuclear forces. The potential increase in the risk of an armed conflict over Taiwan may also be a factor. However, there is a need for further evidence to determine the extent to which Taiwan influences China's nuclear modernization. The complex US-China relationship and the impact of the China-Russia relationship on strategic stability also play a role in China's nuclear decision-making.
Challenges in US-China Strategic Stability Talks
Strategic stability talks between the US and China have faced challenges. One impediment is finding a basis of political equality that allows both parties to come to the table without feeling disadvantaged. The lack of political will to prioritize nuclear matters and engage in discussions is another factor. The US-China relationship overall has deteriorated, affecting cooperation and discussions. The China-Russia relationship and concerns about conflicts involving multiple countries further complicate the situation. The absence of existing hotline agreements and complicated arms control issues also contribute to the difficulty in initiating strategic stability talks.
Avoiding an Arms Race and Pursuing Strategic Stability
While concerns about an arms race exist, there are possibilities to avoid such a trajectory. China's nuclear arsenal still remains smaller compared to the United States. Diplomatic engagement and discussions between the US and China can help alleviate threat perceptions and enhance understanding between the two countries. Considering the trade-offs and costs of investing heavily in nuclear arms, focusing on conventional military power and strategic stability could be more advantageous for both nations. Additionally, there is a possibility that China's nuclear modernization may not continue at its current pace. Despite challenges, there are paths for the US and China to steer away from an arms race and work towards strategic stability.
Fiona S. Cunningham, assistant professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss China’s expanding nuclear weapons program and the likelihood of an arms race with the United States.