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The President’s Inbox

TPI Replay: China’s Nuclear Forces, With Fiona S. Cunningham

Aug 29, 2023
Fiona S. Cunningham, an assistant professor of political science, discusses China's nuclear program, including its modernization efforts and development of hypersonic weapons. The podcast also explores China's reluctance in strategic stability talks with the US and the possibility of an arms race in nuclear capabilities between the two countries.
37:05

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • China has been modernizing and expanding its nuclear weapons program, with a goal of having around 1,000 warheads by 2030.
  • China's nuclear modernization may be driven by factors such as perceived US threats, internal dynamics, and the potential risk of conflict over Taiwan.

Deep dives

China's Nuclear Buildup

China's nuclear forces have been building up at a slower pace compared to its other military forces. However, around 2018-2019, US intelligence officials sounded the alarm about changes in China's nuclear forces. These changes include an increase in the size, accuracy, diversity, and readiness of China's nuclear arsenal. Previously, China's nuclear forces had been sitting at around 200 warheads, while the United States and Russia have over 1,500 strategic deployed nuclear warheads. China has been transitioning from liquid-fueled to solid-fueled missiles, enhancing their readiness. China's modernization efforts aim to have around 1,000 warheads by 2030. Increased accuracy provides China with the capability for limited nuclear strikes. However, China's policy has historically been centered on a no-first-use approach and a commitment to counterattack rather than engage in first strikes.

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