Macro Voices
MacroVoices #479 Anas Alhajji: What Do Saudi Arabia & Allies in OPEC+ Want from Accelerating the Unwinding of Voluntary Cuts?
May 8, 2025
Anas Alhajji, Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors and a seasoned expert in global energy markets, joins the discussion on OPEC+'s production strategies. He elaborates on the geopolitical dynamics influencing oil prices and the implications of recent production increases. Delving into the effects of Trump's presidency on U.S. oil production, he contrasts predictions for the shale industry with the evolving trends in LNG. Alhajji also offers insights into market responses to global sanctions and the shifting landscape of energy procurement.
01:18:35
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Quick takeaways
- OPEC+'s recent production increase reflects its internal division and is not a direct threat to U.S. shale, contrary to media narratives.
- The anticipated rise in summer oil demand, driven by Middle Eastern electricity needs and the Hajj, may constrain international oil availability.
Deep dives
Confusion Surrounding OPEC Plus Decisions
The recent decision by the OPEC Plus group to increase crude oil production has been widely misinterpreted. Contrary to media claims that this signals a price war against U.S. shale producers, the reality is more nuanced, as the increase in production primarily comes from a subset of members known as the Group of Eight. This group is distinct from OPEC, which faced challenges in achieving consensus on cuts previously. The confusion arises from the misunderstanding of OPEC’s structure and the specific nature of these production decisions.
