Colby Smith, Steven Kelly, and Gerard DiPippo on the Highlights of 2023 and Looking Ahead to the Future
Jan 1, 2024
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Colby Smith, Steven Kelly, and Gerard DiPippo discuss the major surprises and underreported stories of 2023. They also talk about the challenges in predicting economic trends and the consequences of war on the defense industry. Additionally, they explore geopolitical risks, the cost of large central bank balance sheets, and the Fed's framework review.
The US economy defied predictions of a soft landing and experienced higher than expected growth in 2023, fueled by a robust labor market.
The US economy demonstrated resilience throughout 2023 with the surprising absence of a banking crisis and the strong performance of the consumer sector.
Geopolitical risks, including various military actions and tensions, received relatively little attention in 2023 despite their potential to impact global relations and financial stability.
Deep dives
Unexpected GDP Growth in 2023
The US economy experienced higher than expected growth in the third quarter of 2023, defying predictions due to the tight monetary policy and high Fed funds rate. This strong growth, fueled by a robust labor market, reshaped the narrative around a soft landing for the US economy.
Surprising Resilience in the US Economy
Despite initial concerns of a recession, the US economy demonstrated resilience throughout 2023. The financial stability expert noted the surprising absence of a banking crisis despite interest rate risk. Additionally, the US consumer confounded expectations, driving economic growth and mitigating recession fears.
Underreported Global Geopolitical Risks
While widely discussed, the geopolitical risks posed by various military actions and ongoing tensions were not given enough attention in 2023. These events, such as conflicts in Ukraine and the South China Sea, have the potential to significantly impact global relations and financial stability, yet received relatively little coverage.
Shift in Global Economic Power Dynamics
Elections and anti-incumbent sentiments will be a significant theme in 2024, with a flurry of leadership changes worldwide. This trend, coupled with geopolitical tensions, could lead to potential shifts in global power dynamics. Furthermore, the impact of disinformation and deepfake technology on elections and political outcomes cannot be underestimated.
Reevaluation of Central Bank Framework
The upcoming framework review by major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will be an important focus in 2024. Discussions may revolve around the flexibility of average inflation targeting, commitment to achieving 2% inflation, and potential adjustments based on the forecasting failures post-COVID. Other central banks are also considering their frameworks and responding to inflation reduction and economic stabilization efforts.
Colby Smith is the US economics editor for the Financial Times, Steven Kelly is the Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, and Gerard DiPippo is the Senior Geoeconomics Analyst at Bloomberg. For this special year-end episode of Macro Musings, Colby, Steven, and Gerard join David to talk about the major surprises, themes, and underreported as well as overreported stories of the past year. They also discuss their prediction outcomes throughout 2023, the economic and political landscape ahead for 2024, and a lot more.