Rainer on Leadership The Burge Report: What Happened to All the White Evangelical Democrats?
White evangelicals are among the largest voting groups in America. They tend to vote Republican. Has this tendency always been the case? And what about white evangelical Democrats? Ryan Burge joins Thom and Sam on an election season special to discuss evangelical voting trends.
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- Before 1970, white evangelical Democrats outnumbered white evangelical Republicans.
- Since 1970, the number of white evangelical Democrats has shrunk dramatically, while the number of white evangelical Republicans has grown. In the 2020 election year, Republicans made up 78% of white evangelicals, while Democrats accounted for only 16%, and Independents were 8%.
- But another story emerges when you look at how people vote (and not just how they identify). White evangelicals—both Democrats and Republicans—have voted Republican since 1968. For example, in 1972, only 36% of white evangelicals were Republicans, yet 84% of them cast a ballot for Nixon.
- In the 1960s through the 1980s, a significant number of individuals who did not identify as Republicans were nonetheless voting for Republican candidates.
- Since the 1980s, however, more white evangelicals have started identifying (and voting as) Republicans.
- The bottom line: Partisan affiliation is a lagging indicator to another leading indicator, vote choice.
- White evangelical Democrats disappeared as more of them started affiliating with the Republican party over the course of several decades.
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