Episode 76: How’s the market? With special guest Nerida Conisbee, Chief Economist at realestate.com.au

“We definitely have seen a change in sentiment – but we haven’t seen job loss and economic decline. So it doesn’t intuitively make sense that we’re in ‘crash’ conditions. We probably overshot in Sydney and Melbourne. And now we’re coming back again.”

“How’s the market?” It’s a question agents get asked a lot, not just by clients but by friends, family and the community. This week REA released their Demand Index for the last quarter of 2018 clearly showing very different conditions in different areas across Australia.

Our guest this week the author of the report – Chief Economist at realestate.com.au Nerida Conisbee. In this podcast, we unpack the market trends in various areas along with what is happening at a macro level on hottest topics right now including The Banking Royal Commission, Interest Rates, Stamp Duty, Bitcoin, Investor Activity, Negative Gearing and the upcoming Federal Election. There are plenty of talking points for you here from Nerida – so grab a pen and jot down a few notes for the next time someone asks you, “How’s the market?”.

SHOW NOTES / LINKS

Realestate.com.au’s Property Outlook for October – December 2018

3:20   Property demand = Views per listing, tracks relativity between suburbs and how they track against consumer popularity
4:48   Why property demand is a good indicator of price increases/decreases
5:19   How the median price and ‘The Index’ are calculated, how ‘The Index’ is unique to realestate.com.au
7:49   “The Royal Commission is increasingly looking like it won’t be focusing on the home loan market will be focusing more on fees for no service”
10:31   Some of the regions, eg Geelong are doing really well; why you can’t talk about the property market as one number
12:11   The possible impacts of the upcoming Federal Election on values, including best and worst case scenarios on negative gearing
14:53   “It does lead to a lot of disruption in the property market when you start to fiddle around with policy at a national level – when a lot of property markets are very localised…” 
16:28   The likelihood of ‘breaking news’ in 2019 as far as interest rates are concerned
18:37   What sort of intervention might we see from APRA this year
20:04   Stamp Duty vs Land Tax – why the debate continues and its impact on consumers
22:00   “The other issue that is impacting the Asian market as there is a lot of negative media coming out about Australia – and is hitting the market really hard.”
24:06   Nerida’s predictions for 2019