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Jan 9, 2026 The discussion kicks off with the analysis of tech-led business spending versus cautious investment, highlighting weak labor demand. Concerns emerge over last year's narrow growth and the need for a shift toward more balanced, employment-driven expansion. Despite strong consumer spending, job growth remains an enigma. They delve into the Fed's potential reactions to inflation signals and the diverging inflation patterns across regions. The hosts also explore Asia's tech influence and the implications of upcoming economic data.
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Narrow Tech Lift Fuels Uneven Growth
- Tech-driven business investment and AI lifted growth unevenly across regions in 2025.
- This narrow boost risks reversing if business caution spreads to labor and consumer incomes.
Labor Supply Weakness Limits Fed Easing
- Weak labor supply could push unemployment lower even as jobs recover, complicating Fed policy.
- That makes meaningful rate cuts in 2026 unlikely despite a new, dovish Fed chair.
K-Shaped Expansion Leaves Big Risks
- The expansion in 2025 was K-shaped and relied on falling household saving and asset gains.
- Those imbalances, plus unsustainably high productivity, raise downside risks for 2026.