ChinaTalk Japan's New Prime Minister: What to Expect
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Oct 29, 2025 Tobias Harris, a consultant on Japanese politics and host of the Observing Japan Substack, shares insights on the rise of Japan's new Prime Minister, Takaichi. He delves into her political background and hawkish stance on defense. Harris discusses how her leadership may impact Japan's international relations, especially with the U.S. He also highlights the challenges she faces domestically, including coalition dynamics and government stability, while assessing the significance of having Japan's first female prime minister.
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Short, Familiar Leadership Race
- The LDP leadership contest in September was shorter and less crowded than the previous year, with familiar candidates repeating their bids.
- Takaichi won largely because she unified a plurality of rank-and-file votes while her rivals split the rest.
Prefectures Decided The Runoff
- Takaichi outperformed polls and won by consolidating late undecided rank-and-file support across prefectures.
- Prefectural vote distribution mattered more than raw national totals in the runoff outcome.
No Simple Swing To The Right
- The LDP's recent electoral losses were concentrated in its right wing, complicating assumptions of a simple rightward shift.
- Takaichi's argument that the party moved too far to the center resonated despite that complexity.