In this book, Toby Ord argues that humanity is in a uniquely dangerous period, which he terms 'the Precipice,' beginning with the first atomic bomb test in 1945. Ord examines various existential risks, including natural and anthropogenic threats, and estimates that there is a one in six chance of humanity suffering an existential catastrophe within the next 100 years. He advocates for a major reorientation in how we see the world and our role in it, emphasizing the need for collective action to minimize these risks and ensure a safe future for humanity. The book integrates insights from multiple disciplines, including physics, biology, earth science, computer science, history, anthropology, statistics, international relations, and moral philosophy[1][3][5].
In this “fun”, festive episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart discuss two ways—one man-made, one natural—that our species might be wiped off the planet.
The first is “mirror life”, a science-fiction-sounding threat that hardly anyone had heard of until last week, when a group of concerned scientists wrote an open letter arguing that this is a technology that should never be developed. The second is the eruption of a supervolcano, which has a scarily high likelihood of happening in the next century… and for which scientists say we’re “woefully underprepared”. Have a cheery Christmas!
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Show notes
* Mirror life:
* The 300-page full Stanford report
* Science perspective piece on the risks of mirror life
* Asimov Press explainer article
* Supervolcanoes:
* I HATE ICELAND!
* Nature piece from 2022 about our “woeful” level of preparation for a massive volcanic eruption
* 1816, the “year without a summer”
* Evidence against the idea that Mt. Tambora nearly drove humans to extinction
* 2024 paper that’s sceptical of global cooling beyond 1.5 degrees C
* 2023 paper with a much more pessimistic scenario
* Two useful discussions (first, second) of the effects of supervolcanoes on the Effective Altruism forum
* 2018 article on what interventions might prevent or mitigate supervolcanic eruptions
Credits
The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions.
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