Rob and Greg dive into predictions for 2025, analyzing transaction volumes and mortgage rates while considering the future of MLSs. They debate the possibility of the three-way agreement unraveling and what that could mean for real estate associations. The discussion highlights the importance of community engagement, referencing cultural shifts and the decline of social organizations. Speculation on mergers and acquisitions in the industry adds a thrilling twist, making for an insightful glimpse into the evolving landscape of real estate.
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insights INSIGHT
2025 Transaction Predictions
Rob Hahn predicts a modest 3% increase in transactions for 2025, reaching 4.12 million.
Greg Robertson anticipates a decline to 3.8 million transactions due to higher mortgage rates.
insights INSIGHT
Mortgage Rates and Buyer Behavior
Rob believes that higher mortgage rates, even around 6-7%, can be positive for real estate.
People's anchoring to historically low sub-5% rates prevents them from buying, thus higher rates will push more people into buying.
insights INSIGHT
Home Price Predictions
The average home price in the US is currently $420,000.
Rob predicts an increase to $430,000 in 2025, while Greg projects $460,000 due to increased money printing.
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In 'Bowling Alone', Robert D. Putnam presents extensive data showing how Americans have become disconnected from family, friends, neighbors, and democratic structures. He argues that this decline in social capital has significant negative impacts on physical and civic health. The book explores various factors contributing to this decline, including changes in work, family structure, suburbanization, and the influence of technology such as television and the internet. Putnam also discusses historical precedents and potential solutions for reviving civic engagement and social connections.
In this final episode of the year, Rob and Greg deliver their predictions for 2025, exploring how the real estate industry will evolve. They tackle everything from transaction volumes and mortgage rates to the fate of MLSs and the potential unraveling of the three-way agreement. Along the way, they discuss societal trends, like the importance of community and the role associations can play in bringing people together, while reflecting on industry dynamics and the future of key players like Realtor.com and Compass.
Key Takeaways
• Predictions for 2025: Rob and Greg forecast transaction numbers, mortgage rates, home prices, and the biggest M&A moves.
• The Fate of MLSs: Discussion on whether MLSs will remain relevant or adapt to changing times.
• Unraveling the Three-Way Agreement: The potential impact of associations like Phoenix breaking away from NAR.
• The Importance of Community: Inspired by the book Bowling Alone and the documentary Join or Die, they discuss how associations can evolve to foster better connections.
• Major Industry Moves: Speculation on Realtor.com’s next big acquisition and predictions around mergers like Bright MLS and Stellar MLS.
Industry Relations 