We Asked the Data Journalist Who Rebuilt the Jobs Report What the Headline Number Hides

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Sep 26, 2026

Eric Pachman, data journalist and founder of Data 4 The People, looks beneath headline economic statistics. He explores noisy payroll reports, America’s shrinking labor force, foreign-born workers, and the path from diesel prices to retail inflation. He also examines why personal inflation differs from CPI, what grocery data reveals about store brands, and how AI can make data journalism more accessible.

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ADVICE

Test Jobs Data Against Its Historical Context

Use industry-level history, longer comparison periods, and percentile flags to test whether a payroll change passes the plausibility test.
An extreme education spike or technology decline may reflect sampling noise, especially when later revisions reverse it.

INSIGHT

Job Quality Matters More Than Job Counts

Job counts alone cannot establish a strong economy; composition matters because many new positions may pay too little to support substantial consumption.
Eric Pachman contrasted 60,000 food-service jobs with higher-paid doctors, lawyers, and software engineers.

INSIGHT

Labor Force Decline Is Hollowing Out Rural America

County labor-force maps reveal aging and falling fertility hollowing out rural America while growth concentrates around major cities and suburbs.
Local governments depend on residents working and paying income taxes, making labor-force size more relevant than unemployment alone.

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What are headline jobs and inflation numbers missing about the economy investors actually face? Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to examine how a changing workforce, rising fuel costs, and differences in household spending could affect inflation, consumer demand, and corporate margins.

Using interactive data tools, Eric looks beneath monthly payroll reports, maps changes in America's labor force, and traces how diesel prices can work their way into retail prices. He also shares a grocery-price study that challenged his own assumptions about CPI and explains how he is using AI to make rigorous data journalism more accessible.

Topics covered:

Why monthly jobs reports need context, including survey uncertainty and revisions
How to spot unusual industry-level payroll changes and assess the quality of jobs added
What county-level labor force trends reveal about aging and rural America
Eric Pachman's research on foreign-born workers and the limits of replacement assumptions
How a shrinking supply of workers could create pressure on service prices
How diesel costs flow through freight surcharges, retailer margins, and consumer prices
What to watch for in retailer earnings calls as companies weigh price increases
Why household income, driving habits, and spending patterns change the experience of inflation
What Eric Pachman's Kroger study found about CPI, the Thrifty Food Plan, and store brands
Using AI to test assumptions and expand access to data journalism

Explore Eric Pachman's research and interactive tools:
https://www.data4thepeople.com/

The Men Who Vanished: Testing Labor Market Displacement
https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/the-men-who-vanished

How do the government's grocery prices stack up against the real ones?
https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/kroger-shelf-vs-cpi-thrifty-food-plan/

Chapters:
00:00 Introduction and Data 4 The People's mission
09:20 Spotting unusual changes in the jobs data
18:27 Mapping America's changing labor force
27:00 Foreign-born workers, aging, and labor supply
34:51 Energy costs and the path to consumer inflation
47:49 Why your inflation experience differs from CPI
56:12 Personal inflation tools and testing grocery prices
1:02:36 AI, data journalism, and challenging your own bias
1:11:17 Where to find Eric Pachman's work and tools

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No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.